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Who is in favor of enlargement? Determinants of support for EU membership in the candidate countries' referenda

  • Doyle, Orla
  • Fidrmuc, Jan

We analyze support for EU membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries’ referenda on EU membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. We find that favorable individual and regional characteristics are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. We argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution.

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Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 04-2004.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b042004
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  1. Ben J. Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2001. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: Jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries," Economics working papers 2001-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  2. Michele Boldrin & Fabio Canova, 2001. "Inequality and convergence in Europe's regions: reconsidering European regional policies," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 205-253, 04.
  3. Vlachos, Jonas, 2003. "Who Wants Political Integration? Evidence from the Swedish EU-Membership Referendum," Working Paper Series 594, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  4. Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Anatomy of Voting Behaviour and Attitudes During Post-Communist Transition Czech Republic 1990-98," CEPR Discussion Papers 3801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
  6. K. H. O'Rourke & R. Sinnott, 2001. "The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence," CEG Working Papers 20016, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  7. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries," CESifo Working Paper Series 585, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Orla Doyle, 2010. "Unravelling Voters’ Perceptions of the Economy," Working Papers 201012, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  9. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
  10. Fritz Breuss, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(11), pages 655-666, November.
  11. John E. Jackson & Jacek Klich & Krystyna Poznanska, 2001. "Economic Transition and Elections in Poland," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 391, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  12. Heijdra, Ben J. & Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2002. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries," CCSO Working Papers 200213, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
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