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Eastern enlargement of the EU: Jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries

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Abstract

Eastern enlargement of the EU promises gains, but also imposes fiscal costs on incumbent countries. A sensitive issue concerns immigration, jobs and wages. We address these issues in a general equilibrium framework, both analytically and through numerical simulations. Analytical results identify capital accumulation as a prime transmission channel. Using a dynamic CGE model with search unemployment of high- and low-skilled labor, we simulate the effects of enlargement on Germany finding small e.ects from trade, but more pronounced labor market e.ects from migration. Based on German model elasticities, we approximate expected benefits and costs for other member countries as well.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria in its series Economics working papers with number 2001-11.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2001_11

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Keywords: enlargement; economic integration; economic growth; capital accumulation; search unemployment; computable general equilibrium analysis;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Friedrich Schneider & Kausik Chaudhuri & Sumana Chatterjee, 2003. "The Size and Development of the Indian Shadow Economy and a Comparison with other 18 Asian Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Economics working papers 2003-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  2. Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Grundig & Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Carola Vögtle & Michaela Votteler & Martin Werding, 2004. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35, October.
  3. Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2004. "Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate Countries Referenda," CEPR Discussion Papers 4273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Timo Baas & Herbert Brücker, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: evidence for Germany and the UK," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012010, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  5. Friedrich Schneider & Alexander F. Wagner & Mathias Dufour, 2003. "Satisfaction not guaranteed-Institutions and satisfaction with democracy in Western Europe," Economics working papers 2003-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  6. Torstein Bye & Erling Erling Holmoy, 2010. "Removing Policy-based Comparative Advantage for Energy Intensive Production: Necessary Adjustments of the Real Exchange Rate and Industry Structure," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 177-198.
  7. Alho, Kari E.O. & Kaitila, Ville & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Speed of Convergence and Relocation: New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old," Discussion Papers 963, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  8. Friedrich Schneider & Alexander F. Wagner, 2003. "Tradeable permits - Ten key design issues," Economics working papers 2003-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  9. Marilena Giannetti, 2005. "Macroeconomic Effects In the Acceding Countries," Working Papers 87, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  10. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
  11. Kohler, Wilhelm, 2004. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: a comprehensive welfare assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 865-888, October.
  12. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2004. "Aging, Labor Markets, and Pension Reform in Austria," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 359-, September.
  13. Marcel Thum, 2004. "Die EU-Osterweiterung steht vor der Tür," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(01), pages 3-4, 02.
  14. Alho, Kari & Kaitila, Ville & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Offshoring, Relocation and the Speed of Convergence in the Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 7000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. David E. Wildasin, 2005. "Global Competition for Mobile Resources: Implications for Equity, Efficiency, and Political Economy," Working Papers 2005-08, University of Kentucky, Institute for Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations.

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