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Anatomy of Voting Behaviour and Attitudes During Post-Communist Transition Czech Republic 1990-98

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Author Info
Doyle, Orla
Fidrmuc, Jan

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Abstract

How does implementing harsh economic reforms influence voting behaviour? And how do the patterns of political support change over the course of transition? We analyse these issues using data from a sequence of 11 opinion surveys conducted in the Czech Republic between 1990-98. We find that - while voters’ ideological position and some socio-economic characteristics, such as age and education - tend to have a stable impact on voting behaviour over time, economic outcomes, such as employment status, income and unemployment, only affect political preferences in the later stages of the transition. This is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical literature on political constraints during transition – as the uncertainty about reform’s outcomes dissipates, constituencies of winners and losers emerge. The winners are the young, educated, high-wage earners and workers employed in de novo private firms. The losers, on the other hand, are the elderly, low-skilled and low-wage workers and the unemployed. The balance between these two constituencies then determines the support for reform-minded and left-wing parties at election time.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3801.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3801

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Related research
Keywords: political constraints; political support; transition; voting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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  1. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
  2. Jordahl, Henrik, 2001. "An Economic Analysis of Voting in Sweden," Working Paper Series 2001:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Rodrik, Dani, 1995. "The Dynamics of Political Support for Reform in Economies in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert S. Chase, 1998. "Markets for communist human capital: Returns to education and experience in the Czech republic and Slovakia," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 51(3), pages 401-423, April.
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  9. Gerard Roland, 2002. "The Political Economy of Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 29-50, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gary J. Miller, 1997. "The Impact of Economics on Contemporary Political Science," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1173-1204, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Nauro F. Campos & Aurelijus Dabušinskas, 2003. "So Many Rocket Scientists, So Few Marketing Clerks: Occupational Mobility in Times of Rapid Technological Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 552, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  12. John S. Earle & Scott Gelbach, 2002. "A Spoonful of Sugar: Privatization and Popular Support for Reform in the Czech Republic," Staff Working Papers 02-79, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 1998. "Winners and Losers in Russia's Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1094-1116, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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