Where Has All the Money Gone? Wealth and the Demand for Money in South Africa †
AbstractAfter an upward trend for about 25 years, the income velocity of money in South Africa reversed its course in 1994 and began a steep decline that continues to the present day. Some writers have argued that the change in income velocity is symptomatic of an unstable demand for money. The implication of this argument being that movements in the money supply provide little useful information about medium-to-long-term inflationary developments. We argue otherwise. Our basic premise is that there is a stable demand-for-money function but that the models that have been used to estimate South African money demand are not well specified because they do not include a measure of wealth. Using two empirical methodologies--a co-integrated vector equilibrium correction approach and a time-varying coefficient approach--we find that a demand-for-money function that includes wealth is stable. Consequently, our results suggest that the present practice of the South African Reserve Bank whereby M3 is used as an information variable in the Bank's inflation-targeting framework is well placed. Copyright 2009 The author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: firstname.lastname@example.org, Oxford University Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) in its journal Journal of African Economies.
Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://www.jae.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
- Laurence Boone & Paul Noord, 2008. "Wealth effects on money demand in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 525-536, June.
- Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2006. "A Note On Muth'S Rational Expectations Hypothesis: A Time-Varying Coefficient Interpretation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 415-425, June.
- George S. Tavlas & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 2006.
"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation,"
34, Bank of Greece.
- P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
- Kevin Nell, 2003. "The Stability of M3 Money Demand and Monetary Growth Targets: The Case of South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 155-180.
- A.S. Hurn & V.A. Muscatelli, 1992. "The Long-run Properties of the Demand for M3 in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 60(2), pages 93-101, 06.
- Swamy, P A V B & Tavlas, George S, 1995.
" Random Coefficient Models: Theory and Applications,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 165-96, June.
- P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 1993. "Random coefficient models: theory and applications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andreas Fischer, 2005.
"Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation?,"
05.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Fischer, Andreas M., 2007. "Measuring income elasticity for Swiss money demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1641-1660, October.
- Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What do the Cantons say about Financial Innovation?," Working Papers 2006-01, Swiss National Bank.
- Fischer, Andreas M, 2005. "Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What Do the Cantons Say About Financial Innovation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- By Gunnar Jonsson, 2001. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 2.
- Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-51, March.
- Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001.
"Monetary Policy in the Euro Area,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788885, October.
- P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06.
- G. S. Tavlas, 1989. "Money in South Africa: A Test of the Buffer Stock Model," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 57(1), pages 1-9, 03.
- Zellner, Arnold, 2007. "Philosophy and objectives of econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 331-339, February.
- Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003.
"Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece,"
01, Bank of Greece.
- Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 605-628, December.
- Pratt, John W. & Schlaifer, Robert, 1988. "On the interpretation and observation of laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 23-52.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.