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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?

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  • George Hondroyiannis

    (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department and Harokopio University)

  • P.A.V.B. Swamy

    (US Bureau of Labour Statistics)

  • George S. Tavlas

    ()
    (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) specifies a relationship between inflation and a forcing variable and the current period’s expectation of future inflation. Most empirical estimates of the NKPC, typically based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, have found a significant role for lagged inflation, producing a “hybrid” NKPC. Using U.S. quarterly data, this paper examines whether the role of lagged inflation in the NKPC might be due to the spurious outcome of specification biases. Like previous investigators, we employ GMM estimation and, like those investigators, we find a significant effect for lagged inflation. We also use time varying coefficient (TVC) estimation, a procedure that allows us to directly confront specification biases and spurious relationships. Using three separate measures of expected inflation, we find strong support for the view that, under TVC estimation, the coefficient on expected inflation is near unity and that the role of lagged inflation in the NKPC is spurious.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 57.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:57

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Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips curve; time-varying coefficients; spurious relationships.;

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References

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  1. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
  2. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2001. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 44, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
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  9. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Alan Greenspan, 2004. "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 33-40, May.
  11. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
  12. Ian Dew-Becker & Robert J. Gordon, 2005. "Where Did the Productivity Growth Go? Inflation Dynamics and the Distribution of Income," NBER Working Papers 11842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. I-Lok Chang & P.A.V.B. Swamy & Charles Hallahan & George S. Tavlas, 2000. "A Computational Approach to Finding Causal Economic Laws," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 105-136, October.
  15. Dellas, Harris, 2006. "Monetary Shocks and Inflation Dynamics in the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 543-551, March.
  16. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
  17. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "Inflation Persistence or the Protracted Effects of Commodity Price Changes?," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
  2. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries," Working Papers 2012/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  4. Borek Vasícek, 2009. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4," Working Papers wpdea0912, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  5. Andreas Orland & Michael W.M. Roos, 2011. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Myopic Agents," Ruhr Economic Papers 0281, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  6. Apostolides, Alexander, 2008. "“How Similar to South-Eastern Europe were the Islands of Cyprus and Malta in terms of Agricultural Output and Credit? Evidence during the Interwar Period”," MPRA Paper 9968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Roumen Avramov & Dragana Gnjatovic, 2008. "Stabilization Policies in Bulgaria and Yugoslavia During Communism's Terminal Years : 1980s Economic Visions in Retrospect," Working Papers 81, Bank of Greece.
  8. Gomes, Orlando, 2012. "Thought experimentation and the Phillips curve," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 45-64.
  9. Zarko Lazarevic, 2008. "Banking Performance in South-Eastern Europe During the Interwar Period," Working Papers 79, Bank of Greece.
  10. Stephen Hall & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the Demand for Money and the ECB’s Monetary-Policy Strategy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/05, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  11. P. Swamy & Stephen Hall, 2012. "Measurement of causal effects," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-23, February.
  12. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
  13. Daniela Milučká, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(2), pages 53-70.
  14. Stephen Hall & Amangeldi Kenjegaliev & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2013. "Measuring Currency Pressures: The Cases of the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, and the U.K. Pound," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/10, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  15. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2010. "The Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Case of Non-Linear Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 91-103, February.

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