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Milton Friedman, the Demand for Money and the ECB’s Monetary-Policy Strategy

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  • Stephen Hall

    ()

  • P.A.V.B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas

    ()

Abstract

The European Central Bank (ECB) assigns a greater weight to the role of money in its monetary-policy strategy than most, if not all, other major central banks. Nevertheless, reflecting the view that the demand for money became unstable in the early-2000s, some commentators in the press have reported that the ECB has “downgraded” the role of money-demand functions in its strategy. This paper explains the ECB’s monetary-policy strategy and shows the considerable influence of Milton Friedman’s contributions on the formulation of that strategy. The paper also provides new evidence on the stability of euro-area money-demand. Following a conjecture made by Friedman (1956), we assign a role to uncertainty in the money-demand function. We find that, although uncertainty is mean–reverting, it is none-the-less non-stationary, subject to wide swings, and has substantial effects on the demand for money.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 12/05.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:12/05

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Keywords: ECB’s monetary-policy strategy; Milton Friedman; money demand;

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References

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  1. Issing,Otmar, 2008. "The Birth of the Euro," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521516730.
  2. Swamy P. A. V. B. & Tavlas George S & Hall Stephen G. F. & Hondroyiannis George, 2010. "Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Model Misspecification and Measurement Error," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-35, May.
  3. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, octubre-d.
  4. Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788885.
  5. George S. Tavlas, 1998. "Was the Monetarist Tradition Invented?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 211-222, Fall.
  6. Stephen G.Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Working Papers 61, Bank of Greece.
  7. Stephen Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2011. "Generalized Cointegration: A New Concept with an Application to Health Expenditure and Health Outcomes," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/22, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  8. Issing,Otmar, 2008. "The Birth of the Euro," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521731867.
  9. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & G. S. Tavlas, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 467-481, October.
  10. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  12. Gaspar,Vítor & Issing,Otmar & Tristani,Oreste & Vestin,David, 2006. "Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521854863.
  13. Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521783248, Fall.
  14. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
  2. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Money Demand in the euro area, the US and the UK:Assessing the Role of Nonlinearity," NIPE Working Papers 22/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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