A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment
AbstractAs part of its monetary policy strategy, the European Central Bank has formulated a reference value for M3 growth. A pre-requisite for the use of a reference value for M3 growth is the existence of a stable demand function for that aggregate. However, a large empirical literature has emerged showing that, beginning in 2001, essentially all euro area M3 demand functions have exhibited instability. This paper considers euroarea money demand in the context of the portfolio-balance framework. Our basic premise is that there is a stable demand-for-money function but that the models that have been used until now to estimate euro area money-demand are not well-specified because they do not include a measure of wealth. Using two empirical methodologies - - a co-integrated vector equilibrium correction (VEC) approach and a time-varying coefficient (TVC) approach - - we find that a demand-for-money function that includes wealth is stable. The upshot of our findings is that M3 behaviour continues to provide useful information about medium-term developments on inflation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 61.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Money demand; VEC; time varying coefficient estimation; Euro area;
Other versions of this item:
- Stephen G Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2008. "A Portfolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/9, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-12-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-12-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2007-12-15 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2007-12-15 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-12-15 (Monetary Economics)
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