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Cointegration in Recursive Systems

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  • Davidson, James
  • Hall, Stephen

Abstract

This paper studies the cointegration properties of vector autoregressive models having a block triangular structure, where unit roots may appear in either the marginal or conditional subsystems, or both. In the former case, the conventional stability analysis of dynamic systems is extended to deal with integrated exogenous variables. The concept of target relations incorporates economic equilibrium relationships into the model, with observed cointegrating vectors being interpreted as linear combinations of these. Unstable models may be classified as containing insufficient or inconsistent targets, according to a rank condition on the sum of the lag coefficient matrices. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 101 (1991)
Issue (Month): 405 (March)
Pages: 239-51

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:101:y:1991:i:405:p:239-51

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Cited by:
  1. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
  2. Stephen G Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2008. "A Portfolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/9, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  3. Mourmouras, I.A. & Ghosh, S., 1997. "Fiscal policies and the terms of trade in an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9719, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  4. Mercer, Jeffrey M., 1997. "An alternative specification for intraday simultaneity in spot and futures markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 667-682.
  5. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Corruption, temptation and guilt: moral character in economic theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9419, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  6. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
  7. Heather D. Gibson & Stephan G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2011. "The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/25, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  8. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-87, October.
  9. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
  10. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
  11. Niels Framroze Møller, 2013. "Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment," Discussion Papers 13-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  12. Hall, S. & Mizon, G.E. & Welfe, A., 1999. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9919, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  13. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Where Has All the Money Gone? Wealth and the Demand for Money in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(1), pages 84-112, January.
  14. Rayner, J., 1992. "Identification of structural VARs," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9219, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  15. Ulph, A. & Valentini, L., 1998. "Is environmental dumping greater when firms are footloose?," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9819, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  16. Mukerji, S., 1995. "A theory of play for games in strategic form when rationality is not common knowledge," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9519, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  17. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology II: the role of the philosophy of science," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9619, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  18. Barassi, Marco R. & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G., 2005. "Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-284, March.
  19. MacLeod, W.B. & Malcomson, J.M., 1993. "Motivation, markets and dual economies," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9319, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

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