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Price Linkages In The International Wheat Market

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  • Ghoshray, Atanu
  • Lloyd, Tim A.

Abstract

This paper brings time series techniques to bear on the relationships between the prices of the principal types of wheat traded internationally. In all, the relationships between eleven wheat prices (categorised by wheat quality, harvest date and port of despatch) are scrutinised to uncover the structure of the wheat market implicit in the behaviour its prices reveal. The statistical evidence supports the notion of a highly integrated market that is segmented according to wheat strength-the principal determinant of end-use. Three segments are identified: a market for 'strong' (bread-making) wheat, another for 'weak' (confectionary products-making) wheat and a third for medium strength wheat suitable for unleavened breads and noodles. Whilst informative, market integration - detected by cointegration among prices - is not altogether surprising, yet the presence of cointegration implies a causal structure, which is of more cogent interest. Among a number of complementary techniques, linkages are uncovered using an innovative concept of irreducible cointegration vectors (Davidson 1998, Barassi et al 2001) which provides new evidence on price linkages. Statistical evidence is robust and not test-dependent. Specifically, we find a dominant price leader in each sub-market. In terms of its pricing, the EU is found to play a passive role in the world market, confirming a widely held view.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa with number 25852.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25852

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Related research

Keywords: Wheat market; price linkages; irreducible cointegration vectors; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade;

References

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  1. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  2. Wilson, William W. & Gallagher, Paul W., 1988. "Differentiation and Implicit Prices in Export Wheat Markets," Statistical Series Reports 146454, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
  3. George J. Stigler & Robert A. Sherwin, 1983. "The Extent of the Market," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 31, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  4. Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
  5. Barassi, Marco R & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G, 2001. "Irreducibility and Structural Cointegrating Relations: An Application to the G-7 Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 127-38, April.
  6. Frank Asche & Helge Bremnes & Cathy R. Wessells, 1999. "Product Aggregation, Market Integration, and Relationships between Prices: An Application to World Salmon Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 568-581.
  7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  8. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  10. Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  11. Davidson, James, 1994. "Identifying Cointegrating Regressions by the Rank Condition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(1), pages 105-10, February.
  12. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2005. "Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19353, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2008. "Making the world market price endogenous within the AGMEMOD modelling framework: an econometric solution," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Goychuk, Kateryna & Meyers, William H., 2013. "Short- and long-run relationships between Ukrainian barley and world feed grain export prices," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143085, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  4. Giulia LISTORTI, 2008. "Price Transmission Mechanisms: a Policy Investigation of International Wheat Markets," Working Papers 318, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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