Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market
AbstractPerron's test, Johansen cointegration analysis, and a vector error-correction (VEC) model are used to identify structural change, as well as to examine price dynamics in the U.S. and Canadian hard red spring (HRS) and durum wheat markets. It is found that, due to the U.S. Export Enhancement Program (EEP), price instability experienced in June 1986 has resulted in structural changes for Canadian HRS and durum prices. We also find that Canadian prices have significant effects on the determination of the U.S. prices in the North American wheat market.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.
Volume (Year): 35 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Canadian wheat exports; durum wheat; hard red spring wheat; Johansen cointe-gration test; unit root test with a structural break; vector error-correction; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade;
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- P. J. Dawson & Ana I. Sanjuán, 2006. "Structural Breaks, the Export Enhancement Program and the Relationship between Canadian and US Hard Wheat Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 101-116, 03.
- James Oehmke & David Schimmelpfennig, 2004. "Quantifying Structural Change in U.S. Agriculture: The Case of Research and Productivity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 297-315, May.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997.
"Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000.
"Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
- Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen and Rocco Mosconi, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Barry K. Goodwin & Ted C. Schroeder, 1991.
"Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets,"
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie,
Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 39(2), pages 237-254, 07.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Koo, Won W. & Jin, Hyun Joung & Mattson, Jeremy W. & Taylor, Richard D. & Cho, Guedae, 2004. "Effects Of The Canadian Wheat Board On The U.S. Wheat Industry," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23530, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
- Lavoie, Nathalie, 2002. "An Empirical Evaluation Of The Canadian Wheat Board'S Ability To Price Discriminate In Bread Wheat Exports," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19646, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Mattson, Jeremy W. & Koo, Won W. & Baek, Jungho, 2005. "Effects Of The Duties On Canadian Hard Red Spring Wheat," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23494, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
- Ghoshray, Atanu & Lloyd, Tim A., 2003. "Price Linkages In The International Wheat Market," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Koo, Won W. & Mattson, Jeremy W., 2002. "U.S.-Canada Wheat Trade And Its Effects On U.S. Price And Income," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23572, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.