IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedlrv/y2012imayp153-186nv.94no.3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen G. Hall
  • P. A. V. B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

The European Central Bank (ECB) assigns greater weight to the role of money in its monetary policy strategy than most, if not all, other major central banks. Nevertheless, reflecting the view that the demand for money became unstable in the early 2000s, some commentators have reported that the ECB has ?downgraded? the role of money demand functions in its strategy. This paper explains the ECB?s monetary policy strategy and shows the considerable influence of Milton Friedman?s contributions on the formulation of that strategy. The paper also provides new evidence on the stability of euro area money demand. Following a conjecture made by Friedman (1956), the authors assign a role to uncertainty in the money demand function. They find that although uncertainty is mean reverting, it is nonetheless nonstationary, subject to wide swings, and has substantial effects on the demand for money.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(May), pages 153-186.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2012:i:may:p:153-186:n:v.94no.3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/12/05/153-186Hall.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George S. Tavlas, 1998. "Was the Monetarist Tradition Invented?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 211-222, Fall.
    2. Stephen Hall & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2012. "Generalized cointegration: a new concept with an application to health expenditure and health outcomes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 603-618, April.
    3. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, June.
    4. Stephen G.Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Working Papers 61, Bank of Greece.
    5. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & G. S. Tavlas, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 467-481, October.
    6. Edward Nelson, 2008. "Friedman and Taylor on monetary policy rules: a comparison," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Mar), pages 95-116.
    7. Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788885.
    8. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, May.
    9. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
    10. Swamy P. A. V. B. & Tavlas George S & Hall Stephen G. F. & Hondroyiannis George, 2010. "Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Model Misspecification and Measurement Error," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-35, May.
    11. Granger Clive W.J., 2008. "Non-Linear Models: Where Do We Go Next - Time Varying Parameter Models?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-11, September.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
    13. Issing,Otmar, 2008. "The Birth of the Euro," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521731867.
    14. David Laidler, 1966. "The Rate of Interest and the Demand for Money--Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(6), pages 543-543.
    15. Issing,Otmar, 2008. "The Birth of the Euro," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521516730.
    16. Edward Nelson, 2007. "Milton Friedman and U.S. monetary history: 1961-2006," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(May), pages 153-182.
    17. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & G. S. Tavlas, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 467-481, October.
    19. David Laidler, 1966. "Some Evidence on the Demand for Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 55-68.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    2. Jawadi, Fredj & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 507-515.
    3. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Lucas Critique: the Case of Euro Area Money Demand," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 43(1), pages 61-82.
    4. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    5. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106, January.
    6. Christian Dreger & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2019. "Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 599-615, October.
    7. Yannick Roussel & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2021. "Measuring The Money Demand In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 27-41, March.
    8. John A. Tatom, 2017. "Globalization and Inflation: a Swiss Perspective," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 523-545, July.
    9. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Ewolucja pogladow Miltona Friedmana, a ocena polityki pienieznej Fed i EBC w okresie kryzysu finansowego," Working Papers 168/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised Dec 2015.
    10. Claude Hillinger & Bernd Süssmuth & Marco Sunder, 2015. "The Quantity Theory of Money: Valid Only for High and Medium Inflation?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 61(4), pages 315-329.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen G.Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Working Papers 61, Bank of Greece.
    2. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Is the relationship between prices and exchange rates homogeneous?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 411-438.
    3. Hall, Stephen G. & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 2017. "Time-Varying Coefficient Models: A Proposal For Selecting The Coefficient Driver Sets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1158-1174, July.
    4. George S. Tavlas, 2015. "In Old Chicago: Simons, Friedman, and the Development of Monetary‐Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 99-121, February.
    5. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    6. Hall, Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
    8. James R. Lothian & George S. Tavlas, 2018. "How Friedman and Schwartz Became Monetarists," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 757-787, June.
    9. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Where Has All the Money Gone? Wealth and the Demand for Money in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(1), pages 84-112, January.
    10. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    11. Otmar Issing, 2012. "The Mayekawa Lecture: Central Banks-Paradise Lost," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 30, pages 55-74, November.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    13. Stephen G. Hall & Heather D. Gibson & G. S. Tavlas & Mike G. Tsionas, 2020. "A Monte Carlo Study of Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) Estimation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 115-130, June.
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Stephen Hall & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2012. "Generalized cointegration: a new concept with an application to health expenditure and health outcomes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 603-618, April.
    16. P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas & Stephen G. Hall, 2015. "On the Interpretation of Instrumental Variables in the Presence of Specification Errors," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-10, January.
    17. Issing, Otmar, 2012. "Central banks: Paradise lost," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    18. Cendejas, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan E. & Muñoz, Félix-Fernando, 2014. "Business cycle, interest rate and money in the euro area: A common factor model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 136-141.
    19. Hall Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev Amangeldi & Swamy P. A. V. B. & Tavlas George S., 2013. "The forward rate premium puzzle: a case of misspecification?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 265-279, May.
    20. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve In A Time-Varying Coefficient Environment: Some European Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 149-166, April.
    21. Issing, Otmar, 2014. "Communication and transparency – The example of the ECB," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 70-73.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; European Central Bank; Friedman; Milton;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2012:i:may:p:153-186:n:v.94no.3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.