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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?

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  • Stephen G. Hall

    ()

  • George Hondroyiannis
  • P.A.V.B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) specifies a relationship between inflation and a forcing variable and the current period’s expectation of future inflation. Most empirical estimates of the NKPC, typically based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, have found a significant role for lagged inflation, producing a “hybrid” NKPC. Using U.S. quarterly data, this paper examines whether the role of lagged inflation in the NKPC might be due to the spurious outcome of specification biases. Like previous investigators, we employ GMM estimation and, like those investigators, we find a significant effect for lagged inflation. We also use time varying-coefficient (TVC) estimation, a procedure that allows us to directly confront specification biases and spurious relationships. Using three separate measures of expected inflation, we find strong support for the view that, under TVC estimation, the coefficient on expected inflation is near unity and that the role of lagged inflation in the NKPC is spurious.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 08/26.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:08/26

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Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips Curve; time-varying coefficients; spurious relationships;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Gomes, Orlando, 2012. "Thought experimentation and the Phillips curve," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 45-64.
  2. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "Inflation Persistence or the Protracted Effects of Commodity Price Changes?," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
  3. Alexander Apostolides, 2008. "How Similar to South-Eastern Europe were the Islands of Cyprus and Malta in terms of Agricultural Output and Credit? Evidence during the Interwar Period," Working Papers 80, Bank of Greece.
  4. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian, Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 292, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  5. Zarko Lazarevic, 2008. "Banking Performance in South-Eastern Europe During the Interwar Period," Working Papers 79, Bank of Greece.
  6. Borek Vasícek, 2009. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4," Working Papers wpdea0912, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  7. Stephen G. Hall & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 153-186.
  8. Stephen Hall & Amangeldi Kenjegaliev & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2013. "Measuring Currency Pressures: The Cases of the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, and the U.K. Pound," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/10, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  9. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries," Working Papers 2012/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  10. Andreas Orland & Michael W.M. Roos, 2011. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Myopic Agents," Ruhr Economic Papers 0281, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  11. Roumen Avramov & Dragana Gnjatovic, 2008. "Stabilization Policies in Bulgaria and Yugoslavia During Communism's Terminal Years : 1980s Economic Visions in Retrospect," Working Papers 81, Bank of Greece.
  12. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  13. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2010. "The Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Case of Non-Linear Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 91-103, February.
  14. P. Swamy & Stephen Hall, 2012. "Measurement of causal effects," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-23, February.

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