The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy
AbstractThis paper empirically explores the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC)in multiple quantiles and examines the risk structure of the inflation process focusing on the asymmetric monetary policy. The estimation results support the canonical NKPC in upper quantiles while the hybrid version fits better with mid-quantiles. We find evidence of an asymmetric risk such that a decrease in the expected inflation reduces the risk in the sense of dispersive order and vice versa. This result implies that tightening rather than easing money is more effective in reducing risks. Structural break tests detect a break in all quantiles around 1983. Post-break data still support the asymmetric pattern. JEL Classification: C32, E31, E52 Key words: New Keynesian Phillips Curve, multiple quantile estimation, asymmetric monetary policy, structural break
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2012-03.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-02-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2012-02-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-02-20 (Monetary Economics)
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