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Structural breaks in the U.S. inflation process: a further investigation

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  • J. Jouini
  • M. Boutahar

Abstract

The selection procedure of Bai and Perron (Econometrica, 1998, 66, 47-78), based on a sequence of tests for multiple structural changes, is used to explore the empirical evidence of the instability by selecting the number of breaks and their locations for the post-war monthly U.S. inflation rate. The obtained results indicate that the U.S. inflation process is unstable after June 1982 as there is a break at the beginning of the 1990s. This conclusion contradicts that of Ben Aissa and Jouini (Applied Economics Letters, 2003, 10, 633-6), who show that using some information criteria, the evolution curve of U.S. inflation was flattened during the last 20 years, making the process stable. Hence this points to the fact that the procedure used is more powerful than the information criteria in detecting changes.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Jouini & M. Boutahar, 2003. "Structural breaks in the U.S. inflation process: a further investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(15), pages 985-988.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:15:p:985-988
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000164387
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
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    3. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    9. Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa & Jamel Jouini, 2003. "Structural breaks in the US inflation process," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 633-636.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dağdeviren, Sengül & Ogus Binatli, Ayla & Sohrabji, Niloufer, 2011. "Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 46774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2010. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables: a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1054-1070.
    3. Jamel Jouini, 2006. "Bootstrap Tests in Bivariate VAR Process with Single Structural Change : Power versus Corrected Size and Empirical Illustration," Working Papers halshs-00410759, HAL.
    4. Lee, Dong Jin & Son, Jong Chil, 2013. "Nonlinearity and structural breaks in monetary policy rules with stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Mustapha Belkhouja & Mohamed Boutahar, 2009. "Structural Change and Long Memory in the Dynamic of U.S. Inflation Process," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 195-216, September.
    6. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jeddy, Mohamed & Larue, Bruno, 2012. "Mergers, concurrent marketing mechanisms and the performance of sequential auctions," Working Papers 126945, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
    9. Jouini, Jamel & Boutahar, Mohamed, 2005. "Evidence on structural changes in U.S. time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 391-422, May.
    10. Konstantin Kholodilin & Vincent Wenxiong Yao, 2006. "Modelling the structural break in volatility," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 417-422.
    11. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00333582 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

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