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The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads

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  • Gibson, Heather D.
  • Hall, Stephen G.
  • Tavlas, George S.

Abstract

We discuss the origins of the Greek financial crisis as manifested in the growing fiscal and current-account deficits since euro-area entry in 2001. We then extend a model typically used to explain risk premia to assess the extent to which credit ratings captured these premia. Next, we estimate a cointegrating relationship between spreads and their long-term fundamental determinants and compare the spreads predicted by this estimated relationship with actual spreads. We find that spreads were significantly below what would be predicted by fundamentals from end-2004 up to the middle of 2005; by contrast, since May 2010, actual spreads have exceeded predicted spreads by some 400 basis points.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 498-516

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:3:p:498-516

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Greek financial crisis; Sovereign spreads;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Costantini, Mauro & Paradiso, Antonio, 2013. "Re-examining the decline in the US saving rate: The impact of mortgage equity withdrawal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 215-225.
  3. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
  4. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.
  5. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2013. "Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing Of Sovereigns And The Greek Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/20, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  6. Győrffy, Dóra, 2014. "Válság és válságkezelés Görögországban. A puha költségvetési korlát szerepe a gazdasági összeomlásban
    [Crisis and crisis management in Greece. The role of soft budget constraints in
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 27-52.
  7. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1625, European Central Bank.
  8. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Migiakis, Petros M., 2013. "Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4650-4664.
  9. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00845660 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Piersanti Giovanni, 2013. "Theory and practice of contagion in monetary unions. Domino effects in EU Mediterranean countries: The case of Greece, Italy and Spain," wp.comunite 0098, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  11. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2012. "Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test," CEPS Papers 7085, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  12. Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2013. "Financial crises, the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis, and the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 166-173.
  13. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2014. "Are All Sovereigns Equal? A Test of the Common Determination of Sovereign Spreads in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/06, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  14. Harris Dellas & Goerge Tavlas, 2012. "The road to Ithaca: the Gold Standard, the Euro and the origins of the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Working Papers 149, Bank of Greece.
  15. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
  16. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-00845660 is not listed on IDEAS

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