The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads
AbstractWe discuss the origins of the Greek financial crisis as manifested in the growing fiscal and current-account deficits since euro-area entry in 2001. We then extend a model typically used to explain risk premia to assess the extent to which credit ratings captured these premia. Next, we estimate a cointegrating relationship between spreads and their long-term fundamental determinants and compare the spreads predicted by this estimated relationship with actual spreads. We find that spreads were significantly below what would be predicted by fundamentals from end-2004 up to the middle of 2005; by contrast, since May 2010, actual spreads have exceeded predicted spreads by some 400 basis points.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
Greek financial crisis; Sovereign spreads;
Other versions of this item:
- Heather D. Gibson & Stephan G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2011. "The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/25, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Heather D. Gibson & Stephan G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2011. "The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Working Papers 124, Bank of Greece.
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Du, Chan, 2005. "Determinants of market-assessed sovereign risk: Economic fundamentals or market risk appetite?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-548, June.
- Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
- Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010.
"Banking and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998.
"Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
- Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
- Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
- Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1998.
"High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
5408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 1330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, . "High Yielders: the Spread on German Interest Rates," Working Papers 102, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
- Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-51, March.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
- Heather D. Gibson & Jim Malley, 2007.
"The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greee,"
63, Bank of Greece.
- Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November.
- Heather D. Gibson & Jim Malley, 2007. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Working Papers 2007_39, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004.
"Long-Run Structural Modelling,"
ESE Discussion Papers
44, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-61, September.
- Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2010. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Working Paper Series 1271, European Central Bank.
- Alexopoulou, Ioana & Bunda, Irina & Ferrando, Annalisa, 2009.
"Determinants of government bond spreads in new EU countries,"
Working Paper Series
1093, European Central Bank.
- Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Determinants of Government Bond Spreads in New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(5), pages 5-37, September.
- Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988.
"Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
- Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund.
- Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
- Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros Migiakis, 2010. "European sovereign bond spreads: monetary unification, market conditions and financial integration," Working Papers 115, Bank of Greece.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mauro Costantini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012.
"Re-examining the Decline in the US Saving Rate: The Impact of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1232, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Costantini, Mauro & Paradiso, Antonio, 2013. "Re-examining the decline in the US saving rate: The impact of mortgage equity withdrawal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 215-225.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mauro Costantini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Re-examining the Decline in the US Saving Rate: The Impact of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal," CESifo Working Paper Series 3897, CESifo Group Munich.
- Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012.
"The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
9249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
- Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2013. "Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing Of Sovereigns And The Greek Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/20, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.
- Iuliana Matei & Angela Cheptea, 2012. "Sovereign bond spread drivers in the EU market in the aftermath of the global financial crisis," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00845660, HAL.
- Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2013. "Financial crises, the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis, and the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 166-173.
- Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Piersanti Giovanni, 2013. "Theory and practice of contagion in monetary unions. Domino effects in EU Mediterranean countries: The case of Greece, Italy and Spain," wp.comunite 0098, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
- Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
- Harris Dellas & Goerge Tavlas, 2012. "The road to Ithaca: the Gold Standard, the Euro and the origins of the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Working Papers 149, Bank of Greece.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
- Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
- Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros Migiakis, 2012.
"Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?,"
143, Bank of Greece.
- Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Migiakis, Petros M., 2013. "Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4650-4664.
- Iuliana Matei & Angela Cheptea, 2012. "Sovereign bond spread drivers in the EU market in the aftermath of the global financial crisis," Working Papers hal-00845660, HAL.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2012. "Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test," CEPS Papers 7085, Centre for European Policy Studies.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.