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The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America

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Author Info
Martín Grandes
Abstract

This paper aims to identify the macroeconomic determinants of sovereign bond spreads in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico and discusses the economic policies underlying the divergent fortunes experienced by these countries over 1993-2001. Those determinants, namely real GDP growth, gross capital inflows and debt service burden (as a percentage of GDP), are derived from a consistent theoretical framework and empirically tested.

The econometric analysis suggests that a permanent change in these determinants has a more significant and robust impact on spreads than transitory shocks. It also points out that financial contagion or risk-aversion variables have a meaningful role in explaining sovereign spreads across Latin American countries.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía.

Volume (Year): 44 (2007)
Issue (Month): 130 ()
Pages: 151-181
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:44:y:2007:i:130:p:151-181

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Related research
Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Default Risk; Contagion; Latin America; Emerging Markets.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Gergana Jostova, 2006. "Predictability in Emerging Sovereign Debt Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 527-566, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Martín González-Rozada & EduardoLevy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. José Wong, 2000. "Are changes in spreads of external-market debt also induced by contagion?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 72-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hildegart A. Ahumada & Maria Lorena Garegnani, 2005. "Testing the Exogeneity of Argentine Devaluation and Default Risks in Retrospect," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 647-672, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 1998. "Country and Currency Risk Premia in an Emerging Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 189-216, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres Trespalacios, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002337, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bernoth, Kerstin & Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Sovereign Risk Premia in the European Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian default and the contagion to Brazil," Textos para discussão 420, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  10. Vivek B. Arora & Martin D. Cerisola, 2000. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Economic Conditions in Emerging Markets?," IMF Working Papers 00/148, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Julio Nogués & Martín Grandes, 2001. "COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 125-162, May. [Downloadable!]
  12. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Thomas Philippon & Eduardo Borensztein & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "Monetary Independence in Emerging Markets: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Make a Difference?," IMF Working Papers 01/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Nadeem Ul Haque & Donald J. Mathieson & Nelson C. Mark, 1998. "The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings," IMF Working Papers 98/46, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Selmo Aronovich, 1999. "Country Risk Premium: Theoretical Determinants and Empirical Evidence for Latin American Countries," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 53(4), April.
  16. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2005. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0503005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio & Serven, Luis, 2000. "Global transmission of interest rates : monetary independence and the currency regime," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2424, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 148, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Diaz Weigel, Diana & Gemmill, Gordon, 2006. "What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 476-502, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alex Luiz Ferreira., 2009. "Is it Risk? An Automated Approach to Explain the ex ante UIP Deviations of Brazil," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 46(133), pages 51-66. [Downloadable!]
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