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Interpreting sovereign spreads

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  • Eli M Remolona
  • Michela Scatigna
  • Eliza Wu
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Abstract

Sovereign spreads can be broken up into two components=the expected loss from default and the risk premium, with the latter reflecting how investors price the risk of unexpected losses. We show that the risk premium is often the larger part of the spread.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): (March)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0703e

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  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1986. "The pure theory of country risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 481-513, June.
    • Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Diaz Weigel, Diana & Gemmill, Gordon, 2006. "What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 476-502, April.
  4. Claudio Borio & Frank Packer, 2004. "Assessing new perspectives on country risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  5. Oshiro, Naoto & Saruwatari, Yasufumi, 2005. "Quantification of sovereign risk: Using the information in equity market prices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 346-362, December.
  6. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02.
  7. Nadeem Ul Haque & Manmohan S. Kumar & Nelson Mark & Donald J. Mathieson, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 688-724, December.
  8. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
  10. Jeffery D Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2003. "The credit spread puzzle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  11. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
  12. Sy, Amadou N. R., 2002. "Emerging market bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings: reconciling market views with economic fundamentals," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 380-408, December.
  13. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer & Kevin Cole, 1997. "Split ratings and the pricing of credit risk," Research Paper 9711, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Cited by:
  1. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
  2. Myles Brennan & Adam Kobor & Vidhya Rustaman, 2011. "Diversifying market and default risk in high grade sovereign bond portfolios," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 49-74 Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Fratzscher, Marcel & Reynaud, Julien, 2011. "IMF surveillance and financial markets--A political economy analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 405-422, September.
  4. Giorgia Palladini & Richard Portes, 2011. "Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in the Euro-area," NBER Working Papers 17586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2009. "Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  6. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
  7. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Pedro del Río, 2012. "Boom-bust cycles, imbalances and discipline in Europe," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1220, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
  9. Marc D. Joffe, 2012. "Rating Government Bonds: Can We Raise Our Grade?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 350-365, September.
  10. Peter Sinclair, 2011. "Deficits, Debts and Defaults - Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 11-20, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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