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A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk

Author

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  • Eli M. Remolona

    (Bank for International Settlements, Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific, 78 th Floor, IFC, 8 Finance St, Central, Hong Kong)

  • Michela Scatigna

    (Bank for International Settlements, Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific, 78 th Floor, IFC, 8 Finance St, Central, Hong Kong)

  • Eliza Wu

    (School of Banking and Finance, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW #2052, Australia)

Abstract

We propose a new approach to measuring sovereign default risk. We use sovereign credit ratings and historical default rates provided by credit rating agencies to construct a measure of ratings-implied expected loss. We compare our measure of expected loss from sovereign defaults with stand-alone credit ratings and also examine its relationship with credit default swap spreads. We show that our measure is more informative for measuring sovereign risk. We re-examine the fundamental determinants of sovereign risk and find further evidence to support the debt intolerance and original sin explanations for country risk. This study contributes an improved understanding of the value of sovereign credit rating teams in assessing the long-term country risks accompanying emerging market investments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:26-39
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.357
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zalán Kocsis & Dénes Nagy, 2011. "Variance decomposition of sovereign CDS spreads," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 6(3), pages 36-50, October.
    2. Edward I. Altman & Herbert Rijken, 2013. "Toward A Bottom-Up Approach To Assessing Sovereign Default Risk: An Update," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Oliviero Roggi & Edward I Altman (ed.), Managing and Measuring Risk Emerging Global Standards and Regulations After the Financial Crisis, chapter 2, pages 41-64, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Brůha, Jan & Kočenda, Evžen, 2018. "Financial stability in Europe: Banking and sovereign risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 305-321.
    4. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    5. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2017. "How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: Cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 200-214.
    6. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Fausto Hernández-Trillo & Ricardo Smith-Ramírez, 2009. "Credit Ratings in the Presence of Bailout: The Case of Mexican Subnational Government Debt," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 45-79, August.
    8. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Plazzi, Alberto, 2020. "Does monetary policy impact international market co-movements?," SAFE Working Paper Series 276, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    9. P. Hammer & A. Kogan & M. Lejeune, 2011. "Reverse-engineering country risk ratings: a combinatorial non-recursive model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 185-213, August.
    10. De Moor, Lieven & Luitel, Prabesh & Sercu, Piet & Vanpée, Rosanne, 2018. "Subjectivity in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 366-392.
    11. Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
    12. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2013. "Promotion and Relegation between Country Risk Classes as Maintained by Country Risk Rating Agencies," Working Papers 376, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    13. Chang Liu & Biqian Zhang & Xuefei Wang & Min Guo, 2022. "Account-level analytic hierarchical mixing modeling for credit risk of Chinese Government financing vehicle portfolios," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2771-2798, June.
    14. Garay, Urbi & González, Maximiliano & Rosso, John, 2019. "Country and industry effects in corporate bond spreads in emerging markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 191-200.
    15. Edward I. Altman & Herbert A. Rijken, 2011. "Toward a Bottom‐Up Approach to Assessing Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 23(1), pages 20-31, January.
    16. Owen, Sian & Yawson, Alfred, 2010. "Human development and cross-border acquisitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 689-701, September.
    17. H. Kent Baker & Satish Kumar & Kirti Goyal & Prashant Gupta, 2023. "International journal of finance and economics: A bibliometric overview," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 9-46, January.
    18. Piotr Kębłowski, 2011. "The Behaviour of Exchange Rates in the Central European Countries and Credit Default Risk Premiums," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 221-236, December.
    19. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2019. "The effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-18.
    20. Edward I. Altman & Herbert A. Rijken, 2013. "Sovereign default risk assessment," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 6-27.
    21. Lidija Lovreta & Joaquín López Pascual, 2020. "Structural breaks in the interaction between bank and sovereign default risk," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 531-559, December.
    22. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    23. Zalán Kocsis, 2013. "Global, Regional and Country-Specific Components of Financial Market Indicators: An Extraction Method and Applications," MNB Working Papers 2013/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

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