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Credit default swaps and sovereign debt markets

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  • Hassan, M. Kabir
  • Ngene, Geoffrey M.
  • Yu, Jung-Suk

Abstract

This study investigates the link between the price discovery dynamics in sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and bond markets and the degree of financial integration of emerging markets. Using CDS and sovereign bond spreads, the price discovery mechanism was tested using a vector error correction model. Financial integration is measured using news-based methods. We find that sovereign CDS and bond markets are co-integrated. In five out of seven sovereigns (71%), the bond market leads in price discovery by adjusting to new information regarding credit risk before CDS. In 29% of times, CDS markets are the source of price discovery. We also find a positive correlation of 0.67 between the degree of financial integration and the bond market information share. The evidence suggests that changes in sovereign credit risk and bond yields are significantly influenced by common external (global) factors, while country-specific factors play an insignificant role.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan, M. Kabir & Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2015. "Credit default swaps and sovereign debt markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 240-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:2:p:240-252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.07.002
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    2. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    3. Serhan Cevik & Belma Öztürkkal, 2021. "Contagion of fear: Is the impact of COVID‐19 on sovereign risk really indiscriminate?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 134-154, August.
    4. Zubair Ali Raja & William J. Procasky & Renee Oyotode-Adebile, 2020. "The Relative Role of Sovereign CDS and Bond Markets in Efficiently Pricing Emerging Market Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(3), pages 296-325, December.
    5. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Directional and bidirectional causality between U.S. industry credit and stock markets and their determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 46-61.
    6. Vogel, Heinz-Dieter & Bannier, Christina E. & Heidorn, Thomas, 2013. "Functions and characteristics of corporate and sovereign CDS," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 203, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    7. Gheorghe HURDUZEU & Radu Cristian MUSETESCU & Georgeta Madalina MEGHISAN, 2015. "Financial Market Reaction To Changes In The Volatilities Of Cds Returns," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 152-165, September.
    8. El Abed, Riadh & Zardoub, Amna, 2017. "Time varying and asymmetric effect between sovereign credit market and financial market: The asymmetric DCC model," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-97, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Guesmi, Khaled & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Abid, Ilyes, 2018. "On the determinants of industry-CDS index spreads: Evidence from a nonlinear setting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-254.
    10. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Yang, Lu & Yang, Lei & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "Determinants of dependence structures of sovereign credit default swap spreads between G7 and BRICS countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 19-34.
    12. Asma Sghaier & Sami Ben Jabeur & Boutheina Bannour, 2018. "Using partial least square discriminant analysis to distinguish between Islamic and conventional banks in the MENA region," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 133-148, April.
    13. Hassan, M. Kabir & Kayhana, Selim & Bayatb, Tayfur, 2016. "The Relation between Return and Volatility in ETFs Traded in Borsa Istanbul: Is there any Difference between Islamic and Conventional ETFs?," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 24, pages 45-76.
    14. Christina E. Bannier & Thomas Heidorn & Heinz-Dieter Vogel, 2014. "Characteristics and development of corporate and sovereign CDS," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 15(5), pages 482-509, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price discovery; Financial integration; CDS; Sovereign bonds; Credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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