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Assessing new perspectives on country risk

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  • Claudio Borio
  • Frank Packer

Abstract

We examine in a unified framework three recent perspectives on country risk=debt intolerance, original sin, and currency mismatches. We find statistical evidence supporting aspects of all three, though the strength of that support varies considerably across hypotheses and a number of open questions remain. Our evidence is consistent with the view that good domestic macroeconomic and structural policies hold the key to addressing country risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0412e

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  1. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer & Kevin Cole, 1997. "Split ratings and the pricing of credit risk," Research Paper 9711, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Cukierman, A. & Miller, G.P. & Neyapti, B., 2000. "Central Bank Rerform, Liberalization and Inflation in Transition Economies - an International Perspective," Papers 2000-19, Tel Aviv.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  4. Jonathan Eaton, 1990. "Sovereign Debt, Reputation, and Credit Terms," NBER Working Papers 3424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Flandreau, Marc & Sussman, Nathan, 2004. "Old Sins: Exchange Rate Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 4248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Aktug, R. Erdem & Nayar, Nandkumar (Nandu) & Vasconcellos, Geraldo M., 2013. "Is sovereign risk related to the banking sector?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 222-249.
  2. Salvador, Carlos & Pastor, Jose Manuel & Fernández de Guevara, Juan, 2014. "Impact of the subprime crisis on bank ratings: The effect of the hardening of rating policies and worsening of solvency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 13-31.
  3. Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39.
  4. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
  5. Afonso, António & Gomes, Pedro & Rother, Philipp, 2007. "What “hides” behind sovereign debt ratings?," Working Paper Series 0711, European Central Bank.
  6. Eli M Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2007. "Interpreting sovereign spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  7. Jonathan A. Batten & Peter G. Szilagyi, 2006. "Developing Foreign Bond Markets: The Arirang Bond Experience in Korea," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp138, IIIS.
  8. Serge Jeanneau & Carlos Perez Verdia, 2005. "Reducing financial vulnerability: the development of the domestic government bond market in Mexico," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  9. Robert McCauley, 2005. "Distinguishing global dollar reserves from official holdings in the United States," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

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