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Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American countries

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Author Info

  • Lorena Mari del Cristo

    ()
    (Department of Economic Theory, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Marta Gómez-Puig

    ()
    (Department of Economic Theory, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence on the interrelationship that exists between the evolution of the Emerging Markets Bonds Index (EMBI) and some macroeconomic variables in seven Latin American countries; two of them (Ecuador and Panama), full dollarized. We make use of a Cointegrated Vector framework to analyze the short run effects from 2001 to 2009. The results suggest that EMBI is more stable in dollarized countries and that its evolution influences economic activity in non-dollarized economies; suggesting that investors confidence might be higher in dollarized countries where real and financial economic evolution are less tied than in non-dollarized ones.

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File URL: http://www.ub.edu/riskcenter/research/WP/UBriskcenterWP201402.pdf
File Function: First version, 2014
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter in its series Working Papers with number 2014-02.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bak:wpaper:201402

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Keywords: Dollarization; emerging markets; Latin American countries; Cointegrated VAR; EMBI; exchange rate regime;

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References

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  1. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2013. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 18963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mark Weisbrot & Luis Sandoval, 2009. "Update on the Ecuadorian Economy," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2009-22, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  3. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres Trespalacios, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002337, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gonzalez & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of structural fiscal policy changes in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 119-160 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Suhejla Hoti & Michael McAleer, 2004. "An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 539-588, 09.
  10. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
  11. Andrea Fracasso, 2006. "The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics," IHEID Working Papers 22-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
  12. Rose, Andrew K, 2013. "Surprising Similarities: Recent Monetary Regimes of Small Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 9684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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