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The Stability of M3 Money Demand and Monetary Growth Targets: The Case of South Africa

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  • Kevin Nell

Abstract

The main purpose of this article is to determine whether money should continue to play an important role in the formulation of monetary policy in South Africa, even though the monetary policy framework has recently changed to an inflation targeting strategy. Money can continue to play an important role in the formulation of an efficient monetary policy strategy as long as there is a stable money demand function and money contains useful information about future price changes. The paper presents empirical evidence of a constant and structurally stable M3 money demand function for South Africa over the period 1968-97. The analysis further shows that the non-constancies experienced during 1998-99 may only be temporary. Despite evidence of a stable M3 money demand function, the results indicate that M3 money provides little information about future price changes in South Africa and may therefore have lost its usefulness as a reliable indicator for monetary policy. The money stock is endogenous, with prices determining money through the stable M3 money demand function.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Development Studies.

Volume (Year): 39 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 155-180

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:39:y:2003:i:3:p:155-180

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Related research

Keywords: demand for M3 money; monetary growth targets; super exogenous; inflation;

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Cited by:
  1. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2010. "Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria," Working Papers 1015, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  2. doğru, bülent, 2013. "Dynamic Analysis of Money Demand Function: Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 48402, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Where Has All the Money Gone? Wealth and the Demand for Money in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(1), pages 84-112, January.
  4. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2008. "The Demand for Money in Transition Economies," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 35-43, June.
  5. Riane de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Lardo stander, 2011. "Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data," Working Papers 201134, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Ferda HALICIOGLU & Mehmet UGUR, 2005. "On Stability of the Demand for Money in a Developing OECD," Macroeconomics 0508001, EconWPA.

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