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Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports

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  • George Hondroyiannis
  • P.A.V.B. Swamy
  • George Tavlas

    ()

  • Michael Ulan

Abstract

The relationship between exchange-rate volatility and aggregate export volumes for 12 industrial economies is examined using a model that includes real export earnings of oil-producing economies as a determinant of industrial-country export volumes. A supposition underlying the model is that, given their levels of economic development, oil-exporters’ income elasticities of demand for industrial-country exports might differ from those of industrial countries. Five estimation techniques, including a generalized method of moments (GMM) and random coefficient (RC) estimation, are employed on panel data covering the estimation period 1977:1-2003:4 using three measures of volatility. In contrast to recent studies employing panel data, we do not find a single instance in which volatility has a negative and significant impact on trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of World Economics.

Volume (Year): 144 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 151-180

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:144:y:2008:i:1:p:151-180

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Keywords: Exchange-rate volatility; trade; random-coefficient estimation; generalized method of moments; panel data;

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References

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  1. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
  2. Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 605-628, December.
  3. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 5.
  4. Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S. & Chang, I-Lok, 2005. "How stable are monetary policy rules: estimating the time-varying coefficients in monetary policy reaction function for the US," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 575-590, April.
  5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  7. Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2006. "A Note On Muth'S Rational Expectations Hypothesis: A Time-Varying Coefficient Interpretation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 415-425, June.
  8. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1994. "Connections between GARCH and stochastic coefficients (SC) models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 7-10, September.
  9. P.A.V.B. Swamy & P.A. Tinsley, 1976. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Special Studies Papers 78, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. I-Lok Chang & P.A.V.B. Swamy & Charles Hallahan & George S. Tavlas, 2000. "A Computational Approach to Finding Causal Economic Laws," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 105-136, October.
  11. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, Spring.
  12. P. Swamy & I-Lok Chang & Jatinder Mehta & George Tavlas, 2003. "Correcting for Omitted-Variable and Measurement-Error Bias in Autoregressive Model Estimation with Panel Data," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 225-253, October.
  13. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Azim M. Sadikov & Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 235, International Monetary Fund.
  14. George S. Tavlas & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Working Papers 34, Bank of Greece.
  15. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  16. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
  17. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06.
  18. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, 02.
  2. Alexandros E. Milionis, 2006. "An Alternative Definition of Market Efficiency and some Comments on its Empirical Testing," Working Papers 50, Bank of Greece.
  3. Marc Auboin & Michele Ruta, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review," CESifo Working Paper Series 3868, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. John Williamson, 2006. "A worldwide system of reference rates," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 341-352, December.
  5. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
  6. George A. Christodoulakis & Stephen E Satchell, 2006. "Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility," Working Papers 32, Bank of Greece.
  7. Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe's Hard Fix: The Euro Area," Working Papers 39, Bank of Greece.
  8. nnamdi, Kelechi & ifionu, Ebele, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and exchange rate uncertainty in Nigeria: a financial econometric analysis (1970- 2012)," MPRA Paper 48316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
  9. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 41, Bank of Greece.

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