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On the Sensitivity of the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Trade Flows to Exchange Rate Uncertainty

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College, DIW Berlin)
Mustafa Caglayan (University of Sheffield)

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Abstract

We present an empirical investigation of the hypotheses that exchange rate volatility may have an impact on both the volume and variability of trade flows by considering a broad set of industrial countries' bilateral real trade flows over the period 1980-1998. Similar to the findings of earlier theoretical and empirical research, our first set of results shows that the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows is indeterminate. Our second set of results provides new and novel findings that exchange rate volatility has a consistent positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade flows, helping us better understand macroeconomic volatility.

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File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/WP641.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 641.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 16 Apr 2006
Date of revision: 06 Feb 2008
Publication status: forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:641

Note: previously circulated as "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Exports"
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Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; volatility; fractional integration; trade flows;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 425-38, September.
  4. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
  6. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christopher F Baum, 2000. "FRACDIFF: Stata module to generate fractionally-differenced timeseries," Statistical Software Components S413901, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 24 Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Christopher F. Baum & Vince Wiggins, 2001. "Tests for long memory in a time series," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(57). [Downloadable!]
  12. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2008. "The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 695, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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