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Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Exports

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Author Info
Christopher F Baum (Boston College)
Mustafa Caglayan (University of Glasgow)

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Abstract

We present an empirical investigation of a recently suggested but untested proposition that exchange rate volatility can have an impact on both the volume and variability of trade flows, considering a broad set of countries' bilateral real trade flows over the period 1980-1998. We generate proxies for the volatility of real trade flows and real exchange rates after carefully scrutinizing these variables' time series properties. Similar to the findings of earlier theoretical and empirical research, our first set of results show that the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows is indeterminate. Our second set of results provide new and novel findings that exchange rate volatility has a consistent positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade flows.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 with number 64.

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Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:64

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Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; volatility; fractional integration; trade flows;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 425-38, September.
  5. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christopher F Baum, 2000. "FRACDIFF: Stata module to generate fractionally-differenced timeseries," Statistical Software Components S413901, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 24 Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Christopher F. Baum & Vince Wiggins, 2001. "Tests for long memory in a time series," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(57). [Downloadable!]
  12. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
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