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Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows

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Author Info
John Barkoulas (University of Tennessee)
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College, DIW Berlin)
Mustafa Caglayan (University of Sheffield)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume and variability of trade flows. Employing a signal extraction framework, we show that the direction and magnitude of importers' and exporters' optimal trading activities depend upon the source of the uncertainty (general economic shocks, fundamental factors driving the exchange rate process, or noise in the signal of policy innovations), providing a rationale for the contradictory empirical evidence in the literature. We also show that exchange rate uncertainty emanating from general economic shocks and the fundamental factors reduces the variability of trade flows, while that related to noise in the signal of policy innovations increases variability.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 405..

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Date of creation: 30 Mar 1998
Date of revision: 12 Sep 2001
Publication status: Published 2002, Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, 481-496.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:405

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Related research
Keywords: trade flows; signal extraction; exchange rate volatility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Robert Vigfusson, 1996. "Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Finance 9602003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Victoria S. Farrell & Dean A. DeRosa & T. Ashby McCown, 1983. "Effects of exchange rate variability on international trade and other economic variables : a review of the literature," Staff Studies 130, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  17. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999. "Currency hedging and goods trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Kihangire, 2005. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Variability On Exports: Evidence From Uganda (1988 – 2001)," International Trade 0505013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2007. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Exports," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 64, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jan M. Podivinsky & Chongcheul Cheong & Maozu Lu, 2004. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on US Imports from the UK: Consistent OLS Estimation with Volatility Measured by An ARCH-type Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 212, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sam Cameron & Khair-uz-Zaman, 2006. "Export Function Estimates for the Pakistan Carpet Industry," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 1287-1297. [Downloadable!]
  5. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  6. Katheryn Niles Russ, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and First-Time Entry by Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 13659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2008. "The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 695, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2006. "On the Sensitivity of the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Trade Flows to Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 641, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  9. Margherita Gerolimetto & Isabella Procidano, 2008. "A test for fractional cointegration using the sieve bootstrap," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 373-391, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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