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Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows

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  • John Barkoulas

    (University of Tennessee)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    ()
    (Boston College
    DIW Berlin)

  • Mustafa Caglayan

    (University of Sheffield)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume and variability of trade flows. Employing a signal extraction framework, we show that the direction and magnitude of importers' and exporters' optimal trading activities depend upon the source of the uncertainty (general economic shocks, fundamental factors driving the exchange rate process, or noise in the signal of policy innovations), providing a rationale for the contradictory empirical evidence in the literature. We also show that exchange rate uncertainty emanating from general economic shocks and the fundamental factors reduces the variability of trade flows, while that related to noise in the signal of policy innovations increases variability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 405..

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Date of creation: 30 Mar 1998
Date of revision: 12 Sep 2001
Publication status: Published 2002, Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, 481-496.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:405

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Keywords: trade flows; signal extraction; exchange rate volatility;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jan M Podivinsky & Chongcheul Cheong & Maozu Lu, 2004. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on US imports from the UK: Consistent OLS estimation with volatility measured by an ARCH-type model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 657, Econometric Society.
  2. Mustafa Caglayan & Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2013. "EsTrade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 905-927, April.
  3. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2007. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Exports," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 64, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Longjiang, Chen, 2009. "The Effect of China's RMB Exchange Rate Movement on Its Agricultural Export: A Case Study of Export to Japan," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 49995, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence," Working papers 2005-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  6. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2010. "On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 79-93, February.
  7. Zelekha, Yaron & Bar-Efrat, Ohad, 2011. "The link between exchange rate uncertainty and Israeli exports to the US: 2SLS and cointegration approaches," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 100-109, June.
  8. Sam Cameron & Khair-uz-Zaman, 2006. "Export Function Estimates for the Pakistan Carpet Industry," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 1287-1297.
  9. David Kihangire, 2005. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Variability On Exports: Evidence From Uganda (1988 – 2001)," International Trade 0505013, EconWPA.
  10. Russ, Katheryn, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9xr4f238, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  11. Cavoli, Tony, 2009. "Is fear of floating justified?: The East Asia experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16.
  12. Margherita Gerolimetto & Isabella Procidano, 2008. "A test for fractional cointegration using the sieve bootstrap," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 373-391, July.
  13. Katheryn Niles Russ, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and First-Time Entry by Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 13659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2008. "The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 695, Boston College Department of Economics.
  15. Goudarzi, Mostafa & Khanarinejad, Komeil & Ardakani, Zahra, 2012. "Investigation the Role of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran's Agricultural Exports (Case Study: Date, Pistachio and Saffron)," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(1), March.
  16. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
  17. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
  18. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  19. Longjiang Chen, 2011. "The effect of China's RMB exchange rate movement on its agricultural export: A case study of export to Japan," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 26-41, January.

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