The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on US Imports from the UK: Consistent OLS Estimation with Volatility Measured by An ARCH-type Model
AbstractThis paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on US-UK bilateral trade flows. As part of econometric problems arising from a generated variable, we consider a special case when an ARCH type auxiliary model is used to measure uncertainty in the exchange rate and discuss a procedure for the correct inference of the OLS estimates of the primary equation in the second stage, which includes the generated variable. By applying this two-step approach, we find a statistically significant, negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on US imports from the United Kin
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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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ARCH model; Consistent estimation; Generated regressors; Volatility;
Other versions of this item:
- Jan M Podivinsky & Chongcheul Cheong & Maozu Lu, 2004. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on US imports from the UK: Consistent OLS estimation with volatility measured by an ARCH-type model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 657, Econometric Society.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-10-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-10-30 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-10-30 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2004-10-30 (Finance)
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