This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume of Trade Flows: An Empirical Analysis Employing High-Frequency Data

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Christopher F Baum, Mustafa Caglayan, Neslihan Ozkan

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

"Despite the common view that exchange rate volatility will inevitably depress the volume of international trade by increasing the riskiness of trading activity, empirical researchers have not found clear support for this relationship, with results being characterised as insignificant or where significant, conflicting." (McKenzie, 1999, p.72) In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on real international trade flows, but with a much broader perspective and an improved measure of volatility. Our 18-country data set consists of bilateral real exports for the period 1980-1999 on a monthly basis in each direction. Our study also improves upon much of the literature in its method of quantifying exchange rate volatility. We utilize daily spot exchange rates to compute one month-ahead exchange rate volatility from the intra-monthly variations in the exchange rate. This should provide a more representative measure of the perceived volatility which economic agents must consider, as well as avoiding other potential problems, such as the high persistence of real exchange shocks when moving average representations are used, or high correlation in volatility when ARCH/GARCH models are utilized to quantify exchange rate volatility. Our preliminary analysis suggests that bilateral exchange volatility measures calculated from these data will shed considerable light on the debate about the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/ec-p/WP488.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 85.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:85

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; volatility; trade flows;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 425-38, September.
  9. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Victoria S. Farrell & Dean A. DeRosa & T. Ashby McCown, 1983. "Effects of exchange rate variability on international trade and other economic variables : a review of the literature," Staff Studies 130, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Cushman, David O., 1988. "U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 317-330, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bini-Smaghi, Lorenzo, 1991. "Exchange Rate Variability and Trade: Why Is It So Difficult to Find Any Empirical Relationship?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 927-35, May.
  20. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Klaassen, F., 1999. "Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?," Discussion Paper 73, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer with RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.