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An Empirical Analysis of Short-Run and Long-Run Irish Export Functions: Does Exchange Rate Volatility Matter?

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Author Info
Bredin, Don (University College Dublin)
Fountas, Stilianos (National University of Ireland, Galway)
Murphy, Eithne (National University of Ireland, Galway)

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Abstract

We analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between merchandise export volume and its determinants, foreign income, relative prices and exchange rate volatility. The Irish export sector is dualistic, with relatively smaller indigenous firms dominating the more low technology production sectors, while larger subsidiaries of foreign owned multinationals tend to dominate the more high technology sectors. Given the dualistic nature of the Irish export sector, it was considered appropriate to estimate, in addition to a general export function, a separate function for sectors. This allows to draw conclusions about the effect of volatility on different types of enterprises.The model was estimated for Irish exports and sectoral exports SITC 0-4 and SITC 5-8 to the EU using quarterly data for the period 1979-1992. The sectoral classification corresponds to the exports of mainly indigenous Irish firms and multinationals, respectively. We find that the exchange rate volatility has no effect on the volume of trade in the short-run but a significant positive effect in the long run. This is true in the aggregate and for our sectoral classifications. Our results have important policy implications arising from Ireland’s participation in the EMU since the launch of the single European currency on 1 January, 1999. They allow us to tentatively conclude that the decline in intra-EU exchange rate volatility associated with the single currency may lead to a long-run fall in Irish exports to the EU.

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Paper provided by Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI) in its series Research Technical Papers with number 1/RT/02.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/02

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Morgenroth, Edgar L W, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Trade: The Case of Irish Exports to Britain," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 107-110, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. De Grauwe, Paul, 1987. "International trade and economic growth in the european monetary system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 389-398. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Fountas, Stilianos & Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 1999. "Has the European Monetary System led to more exports? Evidence from four European Union countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 357-363, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Holly, Sean, 1995. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Performance: Supply and Demand Effects," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 42(4), pages 381-91, November.
  17. Lastrapes, William D. & Koray, Faik, 1990. "Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 341-362. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Pål Boug and Andreas Fagereng, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and export performance: A cointegrated VAR approach," Discussion Papers 522, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  2. Arief Bustaman & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2006. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200610, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Exchange Rate Variability And The Export Demand For Malaysia'S Semiconductors: An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 13/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gilda Fernandez & Cem Karacadag & Rupa Duttagupta, 2004. "From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Towards Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Working Papers 04/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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