IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/isv/jouijm/v4y2015i1p41-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Exchange Rate on Poland’s Trade Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Katarzyna Twarowska

    (Maria Curie-Sklodovska University, Poland)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of exchange rate on Poland’s foreign trade, especially on bilateral trade flows between Poland and the Euro area, which is its major trading partner. The research verifies the theoretical concepts that explain how the exchange rate influences the trade turnover. The empirical analysis was preceded by a theoretical basis of the problem. Data used in this study covers the period from 2004 to 2013. The theoretical and empirical analysis confirm that the exchange rate is a substantial factor influencing bilateral trade turnover between Poland and its main trading partners. The Polish zloty depreciation is the cause for the Polish exports growth. In the case of imports, the depreciation of the Polish zloty causes a decrease of the value of the Polish imports. Moreover, the exchange rate is an important adjustment mechanism, thanks to which the Polish economy was able to avoid a large decline in exports and GDP during the recent financial and economic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Twarowska, 2015. "The Impact of Exchange Rate on Poland’s Trade Flows," International Journal of Management, Knowledge and Learning, International School for Social and Business Studies, Celje, Slovenia, vol. 4(1), pages 41-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:isv:jouijm:v:4:y:2015:i:1:p:41-57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.issbs.si/press/ISSN/2232-5697/4_41-57.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
    2. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    3. Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, September.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    5. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    6. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    7. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
    8. Edwin L.-C. Lai & Xiangrong Yu, 2015. "Invoicing Currency in International Trade: An Empirical Investigation and Some Implications for the Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 193-229, January.
    9. Piotr Banbula & Witold Kozinski & Michal Rubaszek, 2011. "The role of the exchange rate in monetary policy in Poland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 285-295, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999. "Currency hedging and goods trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June.
    11. Marilyne Huchet & J. Korinek, 2011. "To what extent do exchange rates and their volatility affect trade ?," Post-Print hal-00729403, HAL.
    12. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    13. Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 425-438, September.
    14. Ozturk, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 85-102.
    15. Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February.
    16. Broll, Udo & Wahl, Jack E. & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2006. "Elasticity of risk aversion and international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 126-130, July.
    17. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August.
    18. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    19. Bruno Coric & Geoff Pugh, 2010. "The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2631-2644.
    20. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Đorđe ĐUKIĆ & Mustafa ÖZER & Mališa ĐUKIĆ, 2023. "The Analysis of the Dynamic Relationships between Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Variables in Selected Countries with Targeted Inflation: Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear ARDL Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 104-124, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    2. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    4. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2008. "The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 695, Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2010. "On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 79-93, February.
    7. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
    8. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
    9. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jun 1994.
    10. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
    11. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman, 2003. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: A general-equilibrium analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 429-441, June.
    12. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.
    13. Agathe Côté, "undated". "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
    14. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    15. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    16. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    17. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2017. "Not all firms react the same to exchange rate volatility? A firm level study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-430.
    18. Chandan Sharma & Debdatta Pal, 2019. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence From India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 696-718, October.
    19. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "Exchange rate uncertainty and export performance: what meta-analysis reveals?," MPRA Paper 49249, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2013.
    20. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2019. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Disaggregated Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from an Emerging Country," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isv:jouijm:v:4:y:2015:i:1:p:41-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alen Ježovnik (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.issbs.si .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.