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The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis

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Author Info

  • Bruno Coric
  • Geoff Pugh

Abstract

The trade effects of exchange rate variability have been an issue in international economics for the past 30 years. The contribution of this article is to apply meta-regression analysis (MRA) to the empirical literature. On average, exchange rate variability exerts a negative effect on international trade. Yet MRA confirms the view that this result is highly conditional, by identifying factors that help to explain why estimated trade effects vary from significantly negative to significantly positive. MRA evidence on the pronounced heterogeneity of the empirical findings may be instructive for policy: first, by establishing that average trade effects are not sufficiently robust to generalize across countries; and second, by suggesting the importance of hedging opportunities - hence of financial development - for trade promotion. For the practice of MRA, we make a case for checking the robustness of results with respect to estimation technique, model specification and sample.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840801964500
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
Issue (Month): 20 ()
Pages: 2631-2644

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:20:p:2631-2644

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Cited by:
  1. Marilyne Huchet Bourdon & Catherine Laroche Dupraz & Anned-Linz Sénadin, 2013. "Impact du taux de change sur la sécurité alimentaire des pays en développement," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 13-10, INRA UMR SMART.
  2. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2013. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Import Demand of Thailand," MPRA Paper 45216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Bouoiyour, jamal & Selmi, Refk & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "The Nexus between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: New Insights from Meta Analysis," MPRA Paper 55238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Verheyen, Florian, 2011. "Bilateral exports from Euro Zone countries to the US: Does exchange rate variability play a role?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 121, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  5. Marc Auboin & Michele Ruta, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review," CESifo Working Paper Series 3868, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jane Korinek, 2011. "To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?," OECD Trade Policy Papers 119, OECD Publishing.
  7. repec:got:cegedp:121 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Halmi Mirela, 2012. "The Correlation Between The Exchange Rate And The Direct Foreign Investments," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 809-815, July.
  9. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
  10. Ghiba, Nicolae, 2010. "Implicații ale volatilității cursului de schimb asupra schimburilor comerciale internaționale (cazul Romaniei)
    [Implications of exchange rate volatility on international trade (The case of Roma
    ," MPRA Paper 28453, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Jan 2011.
  11. Ghiba, Nicolae, 2010. "Efecte ale volatilității cursului de schimb asupra exporturilor
    [Effects of exchange rate volatility on exports]
    ," MPRA Paper 28448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Pomfret, Richard & Pontines, Victor, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements: A Case of Conflicted Interests?," ADBI Working Papers 436, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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