To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?
AbstractTrade deficits and surpluses are sometimes attributed to intentionally low or high exchange rate levels. The impact of exchange rate levels on trade has been much debated but the large body of existing empirical literature does not suggest an unequivocally clear picture of the trade impacts of changes in exchange rates. The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade also does not benefit from a clear theoretical cause-effect relationship. This study examines the impact of exchange rates and their volatility on trade flows in China, the Euro area and the United States in two broadly defined sectors, agriculture on the one hand and manufacturing and mining on the other. It finds that exchange volatility impacts trade flows only slightly. Exchange rate levels, on the other hand, affect trade in both agriculture and manufacturing and mining sectors but do not explain in their entirety the trade imbalances in the three countries examined.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Trade Policy Papers with number 119.
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
exchange rates; trade; trade in agriculture; short-run effects; long-run effects; GARCH volatility; depreciation; volatility; trade deficit; yuan; currency movements; exchange hedging; euro; real exchange rates; US dollar; exchange rate appreciation;
Other versions of this item:
- Maryline Huchet-Bourdon & J. Korinek, 2011. "To what extent do exchange rates and their volatility affect trade ?," Post-Print hal-00729403, HAL.
- F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- O24 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
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