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Exchange rate volatility and Irish-UK trade, 1979-1992

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  • Eleanor Doyle
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    Abstract

    This study examines how exchange-rate volatility affected Ireland's exports to its most important trading partner, the United Kingdom, from 1979 to 1992. To ensure reliable inferences regarding income and price elasticities and the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports, the time series properties of the series used are investigated. The analysis here is conducted at both aggregate and 2-digit SITC Division levels since exchange rate volatility can reasonably be presumed to affect sectors differently. Since expectations matter for exchange rate determination real volatility was generated according to a first-order GARCH process. Both real and nominal volatility were important determinants for over 35% of Irish-UK trade, with positive effects predominating. This may be due to the nature of Irish firms operating in a small open economy where they have little option in dealing with increased exchange rate risk except to 'weather the storm' for fear of losing market share or facing costs of either exit, re-entry, or both.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840122999
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 249-265

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:2:p:249-265

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    Cited by:
    1. Maryline Huchet-Bourdon & J. Korinek, 2011. "To what extent do exchange rates and their volatility affect trade ?," Post-Print hal-00729403, HAL.
    2. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "Exchange rate uncertainty and export performance: what meta-analysis reveals?," MPRA Paper 49249, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2013.
    3. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    4. Goudarzi, Mostafa & Khanarinejad, Komeil & Ardakani, Zahra, 2012. "Investigation the Role of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran's Agricultural Exports (Case Study: Date, Pistachio and Saffron)," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(1), March.

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