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International Policy Coordination in a World with Model Uncertainty

Author

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  • Atish R. Ghosh

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Paul R. Masson

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The design and desirability of rules for the international coordination of macroeconomic policies in a world characterized by model uncertainty are considered. The presence of model uncertainty provides additional incentive to coordinate policies, provided that policymakers recognize that they cannot know the true model. To quantify the benefits from coordination, confidence regions are specified for parameters in MINIMOD; policymakers in the United States and the rest of the world are assumed to use these ranges as subjective probability priors. It is shown that the expected value of gains from coordination of policies may be large, despite substantial parameter uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Atish R. Ghosh & Paul R. Masson, 1988. "International Policy Coordination in a World with Model Uncertainty," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(2), pages 230-258, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:35:y:1988:i:2:p:230-258
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment: Evaluating some Proposals for Reform," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Steinherr & Daniel Weiserbs (ed.), Evolution of the International and Regional Monetary Systems, chapter 8, pages 99-131, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R., 2016. "On the obstacles to international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-40.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2016. "International Coordination," NBER Working Papers 21878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel & Scott Erwin & Katharine Rockett, 1991. "A Note on Internationally Coordinated Policy Packages Intended to be Robust Under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 3747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein & Paul R. Masson, 2017. "The Rationale for, and Effects of, International Economic Policy Coordination," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 7, pages 241-298, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Ha, Yuong, 1999. "Uncertainty about Length of the Monetary Policy Transmission Lag: Implications for Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 94, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Obstacles to Coordination, and a Consideration of Two Proposals to Overcome Them: International Nominal Targeting (INT) and the Hosomi Fund," NBER Chapters, in: International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuations, pages 109-158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Hali J. Edison, 1990. "A new interpretation of the coordination problem and its empirical significance," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 399-435.
    9. Nyahoho, Emmanuel, 1995. "La concurrence de monnaies dans un marché financier dématérialisé," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 71(3), pages 334-364, septembre.

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