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Citations for "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis"

by John F. O. Bilson

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  1. Sonia Pangusión Espinosa., . "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 128, FEDEA.
  2. Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September.
  3. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Gary Gorton & K. Rouwenhorst, 2008. "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: The Inefficient Performance and Persistence of Commodity Trading Advisors," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2429, Yale School of Management.
  4. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February.
  5. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1999. "The risk premium, exchange rate expectations, and the forward exchange rate: Estimates for the Yen-Dollar rate," MPRA Paper 9775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Kerstin Bernoth & Juergen von Hagen & Casper de Vries, 2007. "The Forward Premium Puzzle: new evidence from futures contracts," DNB Working Papers 125, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. Jean-Christian Lambelet & Alexander Mihailov, 2006. "The Triple-Parity Law," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 33, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Momtchil Pojarliev, 2005. "Performance of Currency Trading Strategies in Developed and Emerging Markets: Some Striking Differences," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 297-311, October.
  9. Jose Eduardo de A. Ferreira, 2006. "Effects of Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate: A Panel Analysis for a Sample of Industrialised and Emerging Economies," Studies in Economics 0603, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  10. Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1995. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Foreign Exchange Rate Market," NBER Working Papers 5376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Durham, J. Benson, 2014. "Arbitrage-free affine models of the forward price of foreign currency," Staff Reports 665, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2002. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Alexakis, Panayotis & Apergis, Nicholas, 1996. "ARCH effects and cointegration: Is the foreign exchange market efficient?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 687-697, May.
  15. Hochradl, Markus & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Trading the forward bias: Are there limits to speculation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 423-441, April.
  16. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," NBER Working Papers 15518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Martin, Anna D. & Mauer, Laurence J., 2003. "Transaction versus economic exposure: which has greater cash flow consequences?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 437-449.
  18. Napolitano, Oreste, 2000. "The efficiency hypothesis and the role of 'news' in the Euro/British pound exchange rate market: an empirical analysis using daily data," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-30, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  19. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Heinrich W. Ursprung, 1982. "Einige Bemerkungen zur empirischen Überprüfung der Effizienzhypothese für Devisenterminmärkte," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 118(I), pages 81-92, March.
  21. Sofiane Amri, 2008. "Analysing the forward premium anomaly using a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(26), pages 1-18.
  22. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
  23. Markus J. Granziol & Matthias Denzler, 1985. "Zinssätze als Mittel zur Wechselkurs-Prognose?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 121(II), pages 83-94, June.
  24. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "Floating Excahnge Rates, Exectations and New Information," UCLA Economics Working Papers 227, UCLA Department of Economics.
  25. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256 Bank for International Settlements.
  26. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1985. "Foreign Currency Futures," NBER Working Papers 1743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Steven N. Durlauf & Robert E. Hall, 1989. "Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global asset pricing," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 88, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  29. Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  30. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  31. Waheed, Muhammad, 2009. "Forward rate unbiased hypothesis, risk premium and exchange rate expectations: estimates on Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar," MPRA Paper 33167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2010.
  32. Sercu, Piet & Vandebroek, Martina & Wu, Xueping, 2008. "Is the forward bias economically small? Evidence from European rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1284-1302, December.
  33. Edwards, Sebastian, 1982. "Exchange rates and `news': A multi-currency approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 211-224, January.
  34. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
  35. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1986. "The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Malini, Nair, 2005. "Arbitrage, cointegration and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in coffee futures traded at the CSCE," MPRA Paper 37530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Craighead, William D. & Davis, George K. & Miller, Norman C., 2010. "Interest differentials and extreme support for uncovered interest rate parity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 723-732, October.
  38. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Charles Engel, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 19336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Ahmad, Rubi & Rhee, S. Ghon & Wong, Yuen Meng, 2012. "Foreign exchange market efficiency under recent crises: Asia-Pacific focus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1574-1592.
  41. Charles Engel, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Working Papers 272011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  42. Edmonds, Radcliffe Jr. & So, Jacky Y. C., 2004. "Is exchange rate volatility excessive? An ARCH and AR approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 122-154, February.
  43. Giorgio Valente & H. L. Leon & Lucio Sarno, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 06/136, International Monetary Fund.
  44. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vital, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Working Paper 2010/26, Norges Bank.
  45. Su, EnDer & Fen, Yu-Gin, 2011. "Applying the structural equation model rule-based fuzzy system with genetic algorithm for trading in currency market," MPRA Paper 35474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Jeremy Graveline & Irina Zviadadze & Mikhail Chernov, 2012. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," 2012 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  47. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
  48. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Amine Lahiani, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Working Papers hal-00798036, HAL.
  49. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Craig Burnside, 2009. "Comment on "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 349-359 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Michael Mussa, 1993. "Discussion of 'Recent Thinking About Exchange Rate Determination and Policy'," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.), The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments Reserve Bank of Australia.
  52. John Pippenger, 1991. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates in small open economies: The case of Kuwait," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 183-201, June.
  53. Dhekra Azouzi & Rohit Vishal Kumar & Chaker Aloui, 2011. "Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 17-44, July.
  54. Charles Engel, 2011. "Comment on "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 310-314 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Bruce Felmincham & Peter Mansfield, 1997. "Rationality and the Risk Premium on the Australian dollar," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 47-59.
  56. Shively, Philip A., 2000. "Stationary time-varying risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 273-288, April.
  57. HeeJoon Kang, 1992. "Forward exchange rates as unbiased predictors of future spot rates a review and re-interpretation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 215-232, June.
  58. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2010. "Forecasting the Yen/U.S. Dollar exchange rate: Empirical evidence from a capital enhanced relative PPP-based model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 476-484, October.
  59. Gino Cenedese & Lucio Sarno & Ilias Tsiakas, 2014. "Foreign Exchange Risk and the Predictability of Carry Trade Returns," Working Paper Series 02_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  60. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Caporale, Tony, 1998. "The impact of monetary regime changes: Some exchange rate evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 85-94, March.
  62. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Dimitris Kenourgios, 2005. "Testing Efficiency And The Unbiasedness Hypothesis Of The Emerging Greek Futures Market," Finance 0512015, EconWPA.
  64. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2011. "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 247-309 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & de Vries, Casper, 2012. "The forward premium puzzle and latent factors day by day," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62017, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  66. Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995. "More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests," International Finance 9508003, EconWPA.
  67. Richard C. Marston, 1992. "Interest Differentials Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates: The Effects of Capital Controls and Exchange Risk," NBER Working Papers 4053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
  69. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Tauchen, George, 2001. "The bias of tests for a risk premium in forward exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 695-704, December.
  71. Corinne Winters, 2008. "The Carry Trade, Portfolio Diversification, and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen," Discussion Papers 08-2, Bank of Canada.
  72. Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Testing forward exchange rate unbiasedness efficiently: a semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 325-353, November.
  73. Vistesen, Claus, 2008. "Of Low Yielders and Carry Trading – the JPY and CHF as Market Risk Sentiment Gauges," MPRA Paper 9952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:26:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Nyahoho, Emmanuel, 1995. "La concurrence de monnaies dans un marché financier dématérialisé," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 71(3), pages 334-364, septembre.
  76. Henriksson, Roy. & Lessard, Donald R., 1982. "The efficiency of the forward exchange market : a conditional nonparametric test of forecasting ability," Working papers 1337-82., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  77. Josh Stillwagon, 2013. "Does the Consumption CAPM Help in Accounting for Expected Currency Returns?," Working Papers 1317, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
  78. Peter Rowland, . "Uncovered Interest Parity and the USD/COP Echange Rate," Borradores de Economia 227, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  79. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  80. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
  81. Prakash Kannan, 2008. "Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 08/251, International Monetary Fund.
  82. Sercu, Piet & Vinaimont, Tom, 2006. "The forward bias in the ECU: Peso risks vs. fads and fashions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2409-2432, August.
  83. Richard E. Baldwin, 1990. "Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests:Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands," NBER Working Papers 3319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  84. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Is the foreign exchange market 'risky'? Some new survey-based results," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
  85. repec:dgr:uvatin:2007033 is not listed on IDEAS
  86. Ho, Tsung-Wu, 2003. "A re-examination of the unbiasedness forward rate hypothesis using dynamic SUR model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 542-559.
  87. Sofiane Sekioua, 2004. "The forward unbiasedness hypothesis and the forward premium: a nonlinear analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  88. Rohit Vishal Kumar & Dhekra Azouzi, 2011. "Tunisian and Indian Forex Markets: A Comparision on Forward Rate Unbiased Hypothesis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(40), pages 81-98, June.
  89. Ross Levine, 1986. "An international arbitrage pricing model with PPP deviations," International Finance Discussion Papers 294, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  90. Juan A. Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "The Bias For Forward Exchange Rate And The Risk Premium: An Explanation With A Stochastic And Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  91. Bilson, John F.O. & Cernauskas, Deborah, 2007. "Currency and credit markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1205, November.
  92. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  93. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:143:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  94. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
  95. Dimitris Kenourgios & Aristeidis Samitas, 2005. "Testing Efficiency Of The Copper Futures Market: New Evidence From London Metal Exchange," Finance 0512010, EconWPA.
  96. Wagner, Christian, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  97. Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007. "Revisiting Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Switching Between UIP and the Random Walk," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-001-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  98. repec:dgr:uvatin:2006085 is not listed on IDEAS
  99. MacDonald, Ronald & Moore, Michael J., 2001. "The spot-forward relationship revisited: an ERM perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 29-52, March.
  100. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
  101. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2009:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  102. Bandopadhyaya, Arindam, 1991. "Speculative efficiency and risk premium in the market for foreign exchange : In search of the true specification," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 299-304, July.
  103. W A Razzak, 1998. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis in inflation-targeting regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, revised Aug 1999.
  104. Eric Zivot, 1998. "Cointegration and Forward and Spot Exchange Rate Regressions," Econometrics 9812001, EconWPA.
  105. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.