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How important are the international financial market imperfections for the foreign exchange rate dynamics: A study of the sterling exchange rate

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  • Dong, Xue
  • Minford, Patrick
  • Meenagh, David

Abstract

The UK has been a net debtor over the past two decades and the sterling exchange rates are sensitive to any chaos that might occur in the financial market. This paper examines the importance of the international financial imperfections in the sterling exchange rate dynamics. We build a small open economy DSGE model with the constrained international financial institutions that intermediate capital flows, and derive tractable analytical solutions. The constraint works to introduce a wedge between lending and borrowing rates, which compensates financiers for their currency risk-taking. The model has been estimated by using a simulation-based Indirect Inference approach, which provides a natural framework for testing the hypothesis implied by the model. We find that the model cannot be rejected by the UK data. Shocks to financial forces are the main driving forces behind the large and sudden depreciation of the Sterling exchange rates in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the Brexit vote. Furthermore, the optimal policy rules have been proposed.

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  • Dong, Xue & Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David, 2019. "How important are the international financial market imperfections for the foreign exchange rate dynamics: A study of the sterling exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 62-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:94:y:2019:i:c:p:62-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.02.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyu, Juyi & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "UK monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model with financial frictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Dong, Xue & Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Yang, Xiaoliang, 2023. "Bounded rational expectation: How it can affect the effectiveness of monetary rules in the open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Chen, Haixia & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "UK Monetary Policy in An Estimated DSGE Model with State-Dependent Price and Wage Contracts," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Lyu, Juyi & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2021. "Macroprudential regulation in the post-crisis era: Has the pendulum swung too far?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small open economy DSGE model; International financial imperfections; Sterling exchange rates; Indirect Inference; Crisis; Policy rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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