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Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26

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  • Gianluca Benigno
  • Pierpaolo Benigno
  • Salvatore Nisticò

Abstract

In this research, we provide new empirical evidence on the importance of time-varying uncertainty for the exchange rate and the excess return in currency markets. Following an increase in monetary policy uncertainty, the dollar exchange rate appreciates in the medium run, while an increase in the volatility of productivity leads to a dollar depreciation. We propose a general-equilibrium theory of exchange rate determination based on the interaction between monetary policy and time-varying uncertainty aimed at understanding these regularities. In the model, the behaviour of the exchange rate following nominal and real volatility shocks is consistent with the empirical evidence. Furthermore we show that risk factors and interest-rate smoothing are important in accounting for the negative coefficient in the UIP regression.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Daron Acemoglu & Michael Woodford, 2012. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number acem11-1, May.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 12420.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12420

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    1. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods," Working Papers 1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    2. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, 04.
    3. Pablo Guerron & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, 2010. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 281, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," EIEF Working Papers Series 1021, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Dec 2010.
    5. Gianluca Benigno & Bianca De Paoli, 2009. "On the International Dimension of Fiscal Policy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0905, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2009. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 14734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hess, Gregory & Shin, Kwanho, 2006. "Understanding the Backus-Smith Puzzle: It’s the (Nominal) Exchange Rate, Stupid," MPRA Paper 696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Asset Return Dynamics Under Bad Environment-Good Environment Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 8150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Ralph S.J. Koijen & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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    13. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013. "Really uncertain business cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Lombardo, Giovanni & Sutherland, Alan, 2007. "Computing second-order-accurate solutions for rational expectation models using linear solution methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 515-530, February.
    16. Engel, Charles, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Economics Series 265, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    17. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
    18. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2009. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Working Papers 001, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    19. John F. O. Bilson, 1980. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    21. Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1663-91, June.
    22. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or virtue: time-variant volatilities versus parameter drifting," Working Papers 10-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    24. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 463, Bank of England.
    2. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nistico, 2011. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp677, Financial Markets Group.
    3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2012. "Sudden Spikes in Global Risk," Working Papers 062012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Martín Uribe, 2011. "Comment on "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 315-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur H�lag� & Hande K���k, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    6. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.

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