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Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates in small open economies: The case of Kuwait

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  • John Pippenger
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    Abstract

    The relationship between forward and future spot rates appears to be the same for Kuwait as for larger developed countries. Bid-ask spreads do not appear to affect the relationship. But cointegration, unit root and frequency domain tests suggest that there may be a stronger long-run than short-run relationship. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1991

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF01886899
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

    Volume (Year): 2 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 183-201

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:2:y:1991:i:2:p:183-201

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

    Related research

    Keywords: risk premia; forward rates as predictors of spot; Kuwait; transaction costs; portfolio adjustment;

    References

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    1. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    3. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Pippenger, John, 1989. "Transaction Costs and the Interest Parity Theorem: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 236-43, February.
    4. Blejer, Mario I. & Khan, Mohsin S., 1980. "Foreign exchange market regularities in a developing economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 279-286.
    5. Hylleberg, Svend & Mizon, Grayham E, 1989. "Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 113-25, Supplemen.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1988. "Unit roots in economic time series: a selective survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    9. John E. Pippenger, 1978. "Interest Arbitrage between Canada and the United States: A New Perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 183-93, May.
    10. Levine, Ross, 1989. "The pricing of forward exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 163-179, June.
    11. Blejer, Mario I. & Khan, Mohsin S., 1983. "The foreign exchange market in a highly-open developing economy : The case of Singapore," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 237-249.
    12. Geweke, John F & Feige, Edgar L, 1979. "Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 334-41, August.
    13. Boothe, Paul & Longworth, David, 1986. "Foreign exchange market efficiency tests: Implications of recent empirical findings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 135-152, June.
    14. Boyer, Russell S & Adams, F Charles, 1988. "Forward Premia and Risk Premia in a Simple Model of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 633-44, November.
    15. Chiang, Thomas C, 1988. "The Forward Rate as a Predictor of the Future Spot Rate--A Stochastic Coefficient Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 212-32, May.
    16. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
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