Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market of Papua New Guinea During the Recent Float
AbstractThis paper examines the validity of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Papua New Guinea (PNG) using data on spot exchange rates for four major foreign currencies during the recent float. The unit root test results indicate that all the four exchange rates are random walks supporting the weak-form of the EMH. However, the Johansen multivariate cointegration test, the Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis provide evidence that there are long-run as well as short-run predictable relationships among the spot exchange rates, refuting the validity of EMH in its semi-strong form. Further, evidence is found that the Australian dollar plays a vital role in driving the movements of exchange rates in PNG. These results have important implications for participants in the foreign exchange market and policy makers in PNG.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0406007.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 22 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 19
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://220.127.116.11
Efficient market hypothesis; Papua New Guinea; foreign exchange market; Japanese yen; Variance decomposition;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-06-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-06-29 (Finance)
- NEP-IFN-2004-06-27 (International Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barnhart, Scott W. & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S., 1999. "Non-Informative Tests of the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 265-291, June.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January.
- Bleaney, Michael, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Apparent Unit Roots: An Application to Exchange Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(225), pages 139-44, June.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1984.
"Floating Exchange Rates, Expectations and New Information,"
NBER Working Papers
1064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
- Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1987. "Market efficiency and cointegration," Research Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Boothe, Paul & Longworth, David, 1986. "Foreign exchange market efficiency tests: Implications of recent empirical findings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 135-152, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.