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Dynamic and Stochastic Instability and the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: A Variable Mean Response Approach

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  • Winston T. Lin

    (State University of New York at Buffalo, U.S.A.)

Abstract

This paper examines how determinants of volatility and stock returns change with financial crisis. The contributions of the paper are twofold. First, using a GARCH-M framework, risk and return are jointly modeled by using macroeconomic variables both in the variance and the mean equations. The conditional variance equation is specified by including macro-economic variables, a relevant information set for emerging economies, that is often overlooked in various GARCH specifications. Second, determinants of risk and return are investigated before during and after a major financial crisis at ISE. We show that, both the determinants of risk and the risk-return relationship change as the economy switches from one regime to the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Winston T. Lin, 1999. "Dynamic and Stochastic Instability and the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: A Variable Mean Response Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 173-221, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:3:y:1999:i:3:p:173-221
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    Cited by:

    1. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
    2. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
    3. Winston T. Lin, 2005. "Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 593-605.
    4. Lin, Winston T. & Chen, Yueh H. & Hung, TingShu, 2019. "A partial adjustment valuation approach with stochastic and dynamic speeds of partial adjustment to measuring and evaluating the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 766-779.
    5. Winston T. Lin & Hong-Jen Lin & Yueh H. Chen, 2002. "The Dynamics and Stochastics of Currency Betas Based on the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Foreign Exchange Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(3-4), pages 167-195, September.
    6. Chen, Yueh H. & Lin, Winston T., 2009. "Analyzing the relationships between information technology, inputs substitution and national characteristics based on CES stochastic frontier production models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 552-569, August.
    7. Zhiguang ZHANG & Haiqing HU & Winston T. LIN, 2019. "Analyzing the Impacts of Unobserved National Characteristics on Economic Performance of Information Technology based on a Partial Adjustment Approach With Dynamic and Variable Speed of Adjustment," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 128-142, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency betas; five special tests; four-step generalized least squares; mean and variance shifts; the unbiasedness hypothesis; variable-mean-response random coefficients models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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