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Forecasting foreign exchange rates with an intrinsically nonlinear dynamic speed of adjustment model

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  • Winston Lin
  • Yueh Chen
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    Abstract

    Forecasting foreign exchange rates is an important but difficult process; therefore, it is important to use a superior forecasting model. The paper takes up this criterion and proposes to describe and forecast foreign exchange rates by developing an intrinsically nonlinear model with variable and dynamic speeds of adjustment. It is found that the speed of adjusting the random (or expected) to the equilibrium rate is very slow, implying that fiscal policy (statistically insignificat) and monetary policy (statistically significant) may be ineffective to induce changes in the adjustment speed. We also find that the nonlinear dynamic model improves forecasting performance, implying that nonlinearities in the sense of functional forms are exploitable for improved point forecasting of foreign exchange rates.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 295-312

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:3:p:295-312

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20

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    Cited by:
    1. Lin, Winston T. & Chuang, Chia-Hung & Choi, Jeong Hoon, 2010. "A partial adjustment approach to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 158-172, September.
    2. Chen, Yueh H. & Lin, Winston T., 2009. "Analyzing the relationships between information technology, inputs substitution and national characteristics based on CES stochastic frontier production models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 552-569, August.
    3. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Liew Khim Sen & Lim Kian Ping, 2003. "Exchange Rates Forecasting Model: An Alternative Estimation Procedure," International Finance 0307005, EconWPA.
    5. Ahmad Baharumshah & Venus Liew, 2006. "Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 235-251, April.
    6. Lin, Winston T. & Kao, Ta-Wei (Daniel), 2014. "The partial adjustment valuation approach with dynamic and variable speeds of adjustment to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 208-220.

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