Forecasting foreign exchange rates with an intrinsically nonlinear dynamic speed of adjustment model
AbstractForecasting foreign exchange rates is an important but difficult process; therefore, it is important to use a superior forecasting model. The paper takes up this criterion and proposes to describe and forecast foreign exchange rates by developing an intrinsically nonlinear model with variable and dynamic speeds of adjustment. It is found that the speed of adjusting the random (or expected) to the equilibrium rate is very slow, implying that fiscal policy (statistically insignificat) and monetary policy (statistically significant) may be ineffective to induce changes in the adjustment speed. We also find that the nonlinear dynamic model improves forecasting performance, implying that nonlinearities in the sense of functional forms are exploitable for improved point forecasting of foreign exchange rates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 30 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Lin, Winston T. & Chuang, Chia-Hung & Choi, Jeong Hoon, 2010. "A partial adjustment approach to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 158-172, September.
- Chen, Yueh H. & Lin, Winston T., 2009. "Analyzing the relationships between information technology, inputs substitution and national characteristics based on CES stochastic frontier production models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 552-569, August.
- Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
- Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Liew Khim Sen & Lim Kian Ping, 2003. "Exchange Rates Forecasting Model: An Alternative Estimation Procedure," International Finance 0307005, EconWPA.
- Ahmad Baharumshah & Venus Liew, 2006. "Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 235-251, April.
- Lin, Winston T. & Kao, Ta-Wei (Daniel), 2014. "The partial adjustment valuation approach with dynamic and variable speeds of adjustment to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 208-220.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.