Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ahmad Baharumshah

    ()

  • Venus Liew

Abstract

This paper compares the forecasting performance of the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model with the conventional linear Autoregressive (AR) and Simple Random Walk (SRW) models. The empirical analysis was conducted using quarterly data for the yen-based currencies of six major East Asian countries. We discovered strong evidence on nonlinear mean reversion in deviation from purchasing power parity (PPP). The results suggest that both the STAR and AR models outperform or at least match the performance of the SRW model. The results also show that the STAR model outperforms the AR model, its linear competitor in a 14-quarter forecast horizon. This finding is consistent with the emerging line of research that emphasizes the importance of allowing nonlinearity in the adjustment of exchange rate. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-006-6812-7
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 17 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 235-251

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:235-251

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: autoregressive; smooth transition autoregressive; nonlinear time series; forecasting accuracy;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  3. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1982. "The out-of-sample failure of empirical exchange rate models: sampling error or misspecification?," International Finance Discussion Papers 204, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998. "Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999.
  5. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
  6. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Non-Linear Dynamics in Deviations from the Law of One Price: A Broad-Based Empirical Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 3377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 603-19, May.
  8. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  9. repec:dgr:uvatin:2001031 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  11. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  12. Sarno, Lucio, 2000. "Real exchange rate behavior in the Middle East: a re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 127-136, February.
  13. Winston Lin & Yueh Chen, 1998. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates with an intrinsically nonlinear dynamic speed of adjustment model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 295-312.
  14. Bruce Mizrach, 1996. "Forecast Comparison in L2," Departmental Working Papers 199524, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  15. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  16. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
  17. Michael B. Devereux, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: Evidence and Theory," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 773-808, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Liew Khim Sen & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Choo Wei Chong & Habshah Midi, 2003. "A Non-parametric Bootstrap Simulation Study in ESTAR (1) Model," GE, Growth, Math methods 0307005, EconWPA.
  2. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-keung Wong, 2010. "Linearity and stationarity of G7 government bond returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2642-2655.
  3. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah & Midi, Habshah, 2008. "Monetary exchange rate model: supportive evidence from nonlinear testing procedures," MPRA Paper 7293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Pede, Valerien O. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Modeling Non-Linear Spatial Dynamics: A Family of Spatial STAR Models and an Application to U.S. Economic Growth," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6518, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  5. Chan, Tze-Haw & Lye, Chun Teck & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2010. "Forecasting Malaysian Exchange Rate: Do Artificial Neural Networks Work?," MPRA Paper 26326, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:235-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.