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Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models

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Author Info
Ahmad Baharumshah ()
Venus Liew

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Abstract

This paper compares the forecasting performance of the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model with the conventional linear Autoregressive (AR) and Simple Random Walk (SRW) models. The empirical analysis was conducted using quarterly data for the yen-based currencies of six major East Asian countries. We discovered strong evidence on nonlinear mean reversion in deviation from purchasing power parity (PPP). The results suggest that both the STAR and AR models outperform or at least match the performance of the SRW model. The results also show that the STAR model outperforms the AR model, its linear competitor in a 14-quarter forecast horizon. This finding is consistent with the emerging line of research that emphasizes the importance of allowing nonlinearity in the adjustment of exchange rate. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-006-6812-7
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 17 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 235-251
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:235-251

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For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: autoregressive; smooth transition autoregressive; nonlinear time series; forecasting accuracy;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 603-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates," Working Paper Series 088, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  4. Michael B. Devereux, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: Evidence and Theory," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 773-808, November.
  5. Lin, Winston T & Chen, Yueh H, 1998. "Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates with an Intrinsically Nonlinear Dynamic Speed of Adjustment Model," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 295-312, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price: a broad-based empirical study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Sarno, Lucio, 2000. "Real exchange rate behavior in the Middle East: a re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 127-136, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bruce Mizrach, 1996. "Forecast Comparison in L2," Departmental Working Papers 199524, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Liew Khim Sen & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Choo Wei Chong & Habshah Midi, 2003. "A Non-parametric Bootstrap Simulation Study in ESTAR (1) Model," GE, Growth, Math methods 0307005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Liew , Venus Khim-Sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah & Midi, Habshah, 2008. "Monetary exchange rate model: supportive evidence from nonlinear testing procedures," MPRA Paper 7293, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pede, Valerien O. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Modeling Non-Linear Spatial Dynamics: A Family of Spatial STAR Models and an Application to U.S. Economic Growth," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6518, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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