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Housing returns, precautionary savings and consumption: Micro evidence from China

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  • Pan, Xuefeng
  • Wu, Weixing

Abstract

We investigate how changes in home prices affect consumption in China via a wealth channel. Examining a panel of 7955 households via fixed effects and instrumental variable methods, we find a marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth (home-price MPC) that is concentrated on goods consumed for pleasure rather than necessity. This trend is driven by the value of second homes rather than that of primary residences, suggesting a wealth channel. We further examine whether returns on housing investment, including rental income and home appreciation, fund the wealth channel; however, we find little supporting evidence. In contrast, a reduction in health risk increases the home-price MPC, but a reduction in income risk that also relieves precautionary saving motives does not. Our results are robust to alternative data, common-factor progress, expenditure shocks and bequest motives. We contribute by examining second homes, which carry little of the dual nature of housing that primary residences do, to identify a controversial wealth channel, and by studying the relative effects of health and income risks on the wealth channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Xuefeng & Wu, Weixing, 2021. "Housing returns, precautionary savings and consumption: Micro evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 39-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:60:y:2021:i:c:p:39-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2020.10.006
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Home price; Consumption; Housing return; Precautionary saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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