Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Bubble, Bubble ¡V Is there House Price Trouble -- in Canada?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Marsha J. Courchane

    ()
    (Vice President & Practice Leader; Charles River Associates, Washington, DC)

  • Cynthia Holmes

    ()
    (Ted Rogers School of Management, Ryerson University, Toronto, CA;)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Canadian and U.S. real estate markets have compared similarly along dimensions such as inflation, mortgage interest rates, population and income growth and other measures. With respect to house prices, however, the series have moved in similar ways at some times, but then significantly diverged by the second quarter of 2007. For example, Canadian and U.S. house price indices reached essentially identical levels in 1987Q2, 1995Q1 and 2007Q2. As a consequence of the U.S. financial crisis and precipitous decline in house prices, the U.S. and Canadian indices have sharply diverged. Our paper examines whether or not the house price indices were driven by fundamentals during these time periods, or whether they diverged from fundamentals. We find that the U.S. house prices closely aligned with fundamentals until the mortgage markets crashed in 2008. We find that Canadian house prices continue to align with fundamentals. However, there have been some significant market changes between the two countries and key housing market measures indicate that Canadian markets are now moving along some paths similar to those taken by the U.S. prior to the crash.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.umac.mo/fba/irer/papers/current/vol17n1_pdf/05.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Asian Real Estate Society in its journal International Real Estate Review.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 109-135

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:17:n:01:2014:p:109-135

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.asres.org/

    Order Information:
    Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
    Email:
    Web: http://www.asres.org/

    Related research

    Keywords: House Prices; Mortgage Markets;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296, August.
    2. Coleman IV, Major & LaCour-Little, Michael & Vandell, Kerry D., 2008. "Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 272-290, December.
    3. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2008. "Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 117-137, June.
    4. Bajari, Patrick & Chan, Phoebe & Krueger, Dirk & Miller, Daniel, 2010. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Demand: Estimation and Policy Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 7911, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp337, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
    6. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November.
    7. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
    8. Patric H. Hendershott, 1980. "Real User Costs and the Demand for Single-Family Housing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 401-452.
    9. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allen W. Gregory, 2006. "Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation," Working Papers 06-49, Bank of Canada.
    11. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    12. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    13. William C. Wheaton & Gleb Nechayev, 2008. "The 1998 ?2005 Housing "Bubble" and the Current "Correction": What’s Different This Time?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-26.
    14. Mayo, Stephen K., 1981. "Theory and estimation in the economics of housing demand," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 95-116, July.
    15. Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1994. "Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 4774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Harmon, Oskar R., 1988. "The income elasticity of demand for single-family owner-occupied housing: An empirical reconciliation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 173-185, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:17:n:01:2014:p:109-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.