This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series and Multiple Regression

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Michael C. Lovell (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

After demonstrating that any nontrivial technique for seasonally adjusting time series inevitably leads to certain distortions of the data, an effort is made to provide explicit motivation for the process of seasonal adjustment for purposes of appraising current economic conditions. Inherent advantages in terms of certain consistency requirements of a least square procedure for seasonal adjustment are pointed out. Problems encountered by the econometrician when seasonally adjusted time series are to be employed in regression analysis are also explored. The dummy variable technique for dealing with seasonal fluctuations is generalized to encompass a flexible pattern of seasonal movement. It is argued that when seasonally adjusted data rather than the dummy variable procedure are employed, there is an inherent tendency to overstate the significance of regression coefficients; a correction procedure is suggested. Consideration is given to certain special problems created by autocorrelated residuals when seasonally adjusted data are utilized in regression analysis.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cp/p02a/p0209.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d01b/d0151.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 151.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 1963
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58, 1963
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:151

Note: CFP 209.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Glena Ames).

Related research
Keywords:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Michael C. Lovell, 1959. "Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 86, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles R. Nelson & Heejoon Kang, 1983. "Pitfalls in the use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael C. Lovell, 2008. "A Simple Proof of the FWL Theorem," Journal of Economic Education, Helen Dwight Reid Foundation, vol. 39(1), pages 88-91. [Downloadable!]
  3. Travis D. Nesmith, 2006. "Rational seasonality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael C. Lovell, 2005. "A Simple Proof of the FWL (Frisch-Waugh-Lovell) Theorem," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2005-012, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Strong, S.M. & Wolanowski, A.M., 1981. "A Queueing Model For Egg Price Determination," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(02), August. [Downloadable!]
  6. Meltem Gulenay Ongan, 2002. "The Seasonal Adjustment of the Consumer and Wholesale Prices : a Comparison of Census X-11, X-12 Arima and Tramo/Seats," Working Papers 0205, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frank T. Denton, 2007. "On the Sensitivity of Aggregate Productivity Growth Rates to Noisy Measurement," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 192, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc also has a blog.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.