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A Structural VAR Approach to the Intertemporal Model of the Current Account

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  • Takashi Kano

Abstract

The intertemporal current account approach predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of global shocks, and that responses of the current account to country-specific shocks depend on the persistence of the shocks. The author shows that these predictions impose cross-equation restrictions (CERS) on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). To test the CERs, the author develops identification schemes of the SVAR that exploit the orthogonality of the world real interest rate to country-specific shocks as well as the lack of a long-run response of net output to transitory shocks. Tests of the SVAR reveal two puzzling aspects of the Canadian and U.K. current account: (i) the response of the current account to a country-specific transitory shock is too large, and (ii) the fluctuations in the current account are dominated by country-specific transitory shocks that explain almost none of the fluctuations in net output growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 03-42.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-42

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References

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  1. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1993. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Acocount," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 31, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José Torres, 2011. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 739-766, September.
  2. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2006. "The Present Value Model and New Zealand’s Current Account," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Takashi Kano, 2007. "Habit Formation and the Present-Value Model of the Current Account: Yet Another Suspect," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-505, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  4. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2008. "Expected consumption growth from cross-country surveys: implications for assessing international capital markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 949, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 169-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tahir Mukhtar & Aliya H. Khan, 2011. "The Current Account Dynamics in Pakistan: An Intertemporal Optimisation Perspective," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 401-421.
  7. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2010. "Analysis of current account reversals via regime switching models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 21-43, February.
  8. Kang-Soek Lee & Philippe Saucier, 2011. "Should the UK Join the Euro Zone? Evidence from a Synthetic OCA Assessment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 77-96, June.
  9. Mathias Hoffmann & Ulrich Woitek, 2011. "Emerging from the war: Gold Standard mentality, current accounts and the international business cycle 1885-1939," ECON - Working Papers 057, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  10. Tomasz Wieladek & Sergi Lanau, 2012. "Financial Regulation and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 12/98, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2007. "Understanding the New Zealand current account: A structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  12. Braeu, Rebecca, 2010. "Consumption tilting and the current account: Evidence from Canada," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 304-312, April.
  13. Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "Sources of Current Account Fluctuations in Industrialized Countries," Studies in Economics 0910, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  14. Marcela Veselkova & Julius Horvath, 2008. "Trade Balance and Income Shocks: Experience of Transition Economies," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 241-249, September.

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