Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A Structural VAR Approach to the Intertemporal Model of the Current Account

Contents:

Author Info

  • Takashi Kano

Abstract

The intertemporal current account approach predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of global shocks, and that responses of the current account to country-specific shocks depend on the persistence of the shocks. The author shows that these predictions impose cross-equation restrictions (CERS) on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). To test the CERs, the author develops identification schemes of the SVAR that exploit the orthogonality of the world real interest rate to country-specific shocks as well as the lack of a long-run response of net output to transitory shocks. Tests of the SVAR reveal two puzzling aspects of the Canadian and U.K. current account: (i) the response of the current account to a country-specific transitory shock is too large, and (ii) the fluctuations in the current account are dominated by country-specific transitory shocks that explain almost none of the fluctuations in net output growth.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp03-42.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 03-42.

as in new window
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-42

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Blankenau, William & Ayhan Kose, M. & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 867-889, June.
  2. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  4. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Paul Bergin & Steven Sheffrin, . "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account," Department of Economics 97-22, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  7. Otto, Glenn, 1992. "Testing a present-value model of the current account: Evidence from US and Canadian time series," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 414-430, October.
  8. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Kano, Takashi, 2009. "Habit formation and the present-value model of the current account: Yet another suspect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 72-85, June.
  10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  11. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Nason, James M & Rogers, John H, 2002. "Investment and the Current Account in the Short Run and the Long Run," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 967-86, November.
  14. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," NBER Working Papers 3989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Cardia, Emanuela, 1991. "The dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary, fiscal, and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 411-434, December.
  16. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
  18. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989. "Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account," Papers 61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  21. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June.
  22. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
  23. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  24. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  25. Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing Long Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Quah, D., 1989. "Permanent And Transitory Movements In Labor Income: An Explanation For "Excess Smoothness" In Consumption," Working papers 535, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  27. Razin, A., 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2-93, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  28. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January.
  29. John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  31. Huang, Chao-Hsi & Lin, Kenneth S., 1993. "Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 317-339, June.
  32. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Takashi Kano, 2007. "Habit Formation and the Present-Value Model of the Current Account: Yet Another Suspect," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-505, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2010. "Analysis of current account reversals via regime switching models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 21-43, February.
  3. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2006. "The Present Value Model and New Zealand’s Current Account," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez & José L. Torres, 2007. "Demand shocks and trade balance dynamics," Working Papers 07-04, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  5. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2008. "Expected consumption growth from cross-country surveys: implications for assessing international capital markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 949, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric R. Young, 2010. "Robustness, information-processing constraints, and the current account in small open economies," Research Working Paper RWP 10-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Kang-Soek Lee & Philippe Saucier, 2011. "Should the UK Join the Euro Zone? Evidence from a Synthetic OCA Assessment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 77-96, June.
  8. Tomasz Wieladek & Sergi Lanau, 2012. "Financial Regulation and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 12/98, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "Sources of Current Account Fluctuations in Industrialized Countries," Studies in Economics 0910, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  10. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Working Papers 12193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2007. "Understanding the New Zealand current account: A structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  12. Takashi Kano, 2008. "Habit Formation and the Present-Value Model of the Current Account: Yet Another Suspect ( Revised version of CARF-F-101(2007); Revised version subsequently published in "Journal of International ," CARF F-Series CARF-F-124, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  13. Tahir Mukhtar & Aliya H. Khan, 2011. "The Current Account Dynamics in Pakistan: An Intertemporal Optimisation Perspective," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 401-421.
  14. Mathias Hoffmann & Ulrich Woitek, 2011. "Emerging from the war: Gold Standard mentality, current accounts and the international business cycle 1885-1939," ECON - Working Papers 057, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  15. Marcela Veselkova & Julius Horvath, 2008. "Trade Balance and Income Shocks: Experience of Transition Economies," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 241-249, September.
  16. Braeu, Rebecca, 2010. "Consumption tilting and the current account: Evidence from Canada," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 304-312, April.
  17. Takashi Kano, 2007. "Habit Formation and the Present-Value Model of the Current Account: Yet Another Suspect (Revised as CARF-F-124 (2008) )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-101, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.