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Habit formation and the present-value model of the current account: Yet another suspect

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Author Info
Kano, Takashi

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Abstract

In a recent paper, Gruber (Gruber, J.W., 2004. A present value test of habits and the current account. Journal of Monetary Economics 51, 1495-1507) claims that habit formation in consumption plays an important role in current account fluctuations in selected developed countries, extending the present-value model of the current account (PVM) with consumption habits. In this paper, however, I show that the habit-forming PVM is observationally equivalent to the PVM augmented with persistent transitory consumption, which is induced by world real interest rate shocks. Based on a small open-economy real business cycle (SOE-RBC) model endowed with consumption habits as well as persistent world real interest rate shocks, this paper resolves the inherent identification problem of the habit-forming PVM by Bayesian methods to seek effects of habit formation on current account fluctuations in typical small open economies, Canada and the United Kingdom. Results reveal no clear evidence that habit formation plays a crucial role in current account fluctuations.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 78 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 72-85
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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:78:y:2009:i:1:p:72-85

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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Related research
Keywords: Current account Habit formation World real interest rate Present-value model Small open economy model Bayesian analysis;

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  1. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2008. "Expected consumption growth from cross-country surveys: implications for assessing international capital markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 949, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.


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