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Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach

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Author Info
Campa, Jose M. () (IESE Business School)
Gavilán, Angel (Banco de España)

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Abstract

This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account to evaluate the fluctuations in current account balances experienced by Euro area countries over the last three decades. In the model current account balances are used to smooth consumption and they are driven by expectations about future income and relative prices. This simple model is not rejected for six (Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain) of the ten Euro area countries examined, although the model tends to underestimate their current account volatility. The analysis also shows that the relative contributions to current account balances of future output and relative prices differ across countries. Expectations of future growth increased in all Southern European countries at the creation of the Euro but they had considerably diverged by 2005. While in Portugal these expectations are now below its historical mean, in Spain they are at a historical high.

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Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/651.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 06 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0651

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Keywords: Current account; euro; external deficits; economic integration;

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  5. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 225-247, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Michal Rubaszek, 2008. "On the empirical evidence of the intertemporal current account model for the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 895, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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