Consumption smoothing, capital controls and the current account in Ghana
AbstractMuch of the empirical evidence on developing economies indicates that the basic intertemporal model of the current account fails to predict the dynamics of the actual current account series. This article argues that the model can predict the dynamics of the current account series if it is appropriately adjusted to reflect the nature of capital mobility and exchange rate policies in these countries. Using data on Ghana that span across capital control and liberalized regimes this article reports three finding. First, consistent with the existing empirical evidence, the basic model fails to predict the dynamics of the actual current account. Second, extending the basic model to capture variations in interest rates and exchange rates better explains the path of the actual current account balances only during the liberalized regime. Third, tests of asymmetric access to the international financial market indicate that economic agents in Ghana could not use the international financial market to smooth their consumption during the capital control regime. However, the liberalization program that reduced constraints on capital flows has enabled economic agents to use the international capital market to smooth consumption.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
Issue (Month): 20 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
NBER Working Papers
1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
- Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M., 1995. "Consumption, external assets and the real interest rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-494.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1983.
"Real Interest Rates, Home Goods, and Optimal External Borrowing,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 141-53, February.
- Rudiger Dornbusch, 1981. "Real Interest Rates, Home Goods, and Optimal External Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 0779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell, 1986.
"Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis,"
NBER Working Papers
1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November.
- Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989.
"Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account,"
61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
- Bergin, Paul R & Sheffrin, Steven M, 2000.
"Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Present Value Models of the Current Account,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 535-58, April.
- Paul Bergin & Steven Sheffrin, . "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account," Department of Economics 97-22, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Steven M. Sheffrin & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account," Working Papers 9722, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990.
"World Real Interest Rates,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jebuni, C. D. & Oduro, A. D. & Tutu, K. A., 1994. "Trade and payments regime and the balance of payments in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1161-1173, August.
- Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
- Tim Callen & Paul Cashin, 1999. "Assessing External Sustainability in India," IMF Working Papers 99/181, International Monetary Fund.
- Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January.
- Huang, Chao-Hsi & Lin, Kenneth S., 1993. "Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 317-339, June.
- Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.