This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
José M. Campa () (IESE Business School)
Ángel Gavilán () (Banco de España)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account to evaluate the fluctuations in current account balances experienced by Euro area countries over the last three decades. In the model current account balances are used to smooth consumption and they are driven by expectations about future income and relative prices. This simple model is not rejected for six (Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain) of the ten Euro area countries examined, although the model tends to underestimate their current account volatility. The analysis also shows that the relative contributions to current account balances of future output and relative prices differ across countries. Expectations of future growth increased in all Southern European countries at the creation of the Euro but they had considerably diverged by 2005. While in Portugal these expectations are now below its historical mean, in Spain they are at a historical high.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/06/Fic/dt0638e.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, January 2007
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0638.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0638

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.bde.es/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (María D. González. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España).

Related research
Keywords: intertemporal current account; financial integration; current account balances; euro area;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts In Debtor And Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher & Author-Name: Gernot J. Müller, 2004. "Current account dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 311, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Joseph W. Gruber, 2002. "Productivity shocks, habits, and the current account," International Finance Discussion Papers 733, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Other versions:
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 225-247, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 134-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Barro, R.J. & Martin, X.S., 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," RCER Working Papers 227, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    Other versions:
  15. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Dolado, Juan J. & Viñals, José, 1991. "Macroeconomic Policy, External Targets and Constraints: The Case of Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 505, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1990. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Gabriele Galati & Guy Debelle, 2005. "Current account adjustment and capital flows," BIS Working Papers 169, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Beaudry, Paul & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Exploration Using a US Panel of State Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 495-512, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2002-2), pages 147-210. [Downloadable!]
  21. Benoît Mercereau & Jacques Miniane, 2004. "Challenging the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 04/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  22. Caroline Freund & Frank Warnock, 2005. "Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They are, the Harder They Fall?," NBER Working Papers 11823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Barry Eichengreen & Muge Adalet, 2005. "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?," NBER Working Papers 11634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Bergin, Paul R & Sheffrin, Steven M, 2000. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Present Value Models of the Current Account," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 535-58, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Iscan, Talan B., 2002. "Present value tests of the current account with durables consumption," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 385-412, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Michal Rubaszek, 2008. "On the empirical evidence of the intertemporal current account model for the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 895, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also covers the most complete directory of Economics departments and institutes, EDIRC.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.